8 September 2014
Day before the big event tomorrow, therefore a good point in time to make some predictions and then see where I fall down. How did I get all this G2? Remember, payments is the worlds second oldest profession.. there are very few new ideas. This blog broke the news of ISIS/Mercury 1 year before launch, predicted Apple’s role in payments, … talked about why MCX was forming. My G2 was not someone telling me what was going on.. it was looking at the pieces on the floor and predicting how it will work by making logical deductions surrounding constraints (and learnings) of each participant. Networks are very, very big and sticky businesses. Participants learn lessons and apply them to the next project.
Authentication, secure storage (in the cloud/phone) tokenization and a mechanism for allowing exchanging information (iOS Extensions) allow for so many new processes. Apple is the KEY (security pun)… perhaps that should be the blog title
- Apple will have payment capability, but won’t spend too much time on it. Afterall, this feature has been in market with other handsets for over 3 years. Its not important to them financially, nor is it in the top 5 reasons a consumer would buy their phone. NFC is not their ideal use.. Apple had a fantastic BLE experience defined (and patented).. this is what they may demonstrate. With Square??
- Apple will demonstrate other uses of the phone/security. For example opening a hotel room door with Starwood or Intercon
- The iWatch will be capable of doing either of these through secure integration with the phone
- Apple will have a “buy button” for eCommerce/mCommerce.. Paypal will be a key merchant acquiring partner here. Consumers that want to buy online and have iOS 8 will see a buy button and everything else will happen seamlessly (address, card information). Merchants will be able to keep their current processor.
- Significant focus on consumer security and anonymity. Apple will be the “consumer champion” here, protecting your confidentiality online and in store.
- Apple will announce new program to help merchants with loyalty. The job postings just coming out this week.
- Apple will have a set of 5-10 merchants talking about why they are excited about iPhone 6.
- Apple payments will be the most secure POS payment scheme on the market, supported by the new EMVCo tokenization specification.
- I sure would like to see more merchant friendly solutions announced.. a long shot would be MCX within Apple’s wallet.
Winners in all of this
- Apple.. perhaps the most important handset launch since the first iPhone
- Consumers. fantastic new platform for security, better screen, iWatch, payment, door opening, …
- Visa, Mastercard, Amex and Issuers. They needed someone to kick start mobile payments
- NXP, Broadcom, Qualcom/Gimbal. A new platform for hardware sales
- Application developers, a brand new way to access secure consumer information
- eCommerce/mCommerce sites.. a brand new way to pay for the most valuable consumer segment
- Retail system providers.. what do you tell a consumer in Aisle 12 looking buy X.. Retailers need that answer
- Verifone/Ingenico. Contactless Terminal Adoption
- ?Carriers?. Tremendous iPhone demand is a double edged sword, particularly for a phone where MNOs don’t control a SE
- Affluent merchants. Ability to construct fantastic consumer experiences with Beacons (ie Nordstroms/Macys)
- Advertisers.. how will advertisers work with Apple in their new consumer champion role?
- Gemalto and the GSMA.. Their version for NFC is gone
- Payment specialists/startups. Payments are going to the OS.. there is a “different need” for specialists
- Samsung/HTC, … The only way for them to compete is to move closer to Google..
- Any company that uses a Mac Address or a card PAN to track a consumer…
- ?? I don’t like to focus on losers..