US Payments – Where to Invest

New Payment Experiences

Topics today (pardon the typos)

  • Are US payments still an attractive area for investment and growth? If so, where are the opportunities?
  • High level view of the payment landscape and areas of friction
  • Consumer Journey –  how to unlock new consumer experiences
  • Where will innovation come from? 
  • Core areas for improvement?
  • Who are the best providers? Wallets as the new metaphor
  • Challenges with Issuer-led innovation (ie PAZE)

The top questions coming out of Money 2020 were: is the US payments environment maturing? Are there still opportunities for break out growth? Where? Who is best positioned and why?  Today I will be taking part of that on. 

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A2A, Fed Now and “Instant” Payments – Threat to V/MA? Nope

Short Blog – Free Content

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My good friend Dave Birch wrote a piece in Forbes last week on Account to Account transfer threat to V/MA. I wanted to provide an alternate view. This will likely be a multi-part blog.. today I’m starting with the consumer and the merchant (from a US perspective).

No new information for my frequent readers, just pulling together some of the latest data (see PIX below).

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Settlement – The Core of Banking – Part 1 

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Given that 80% of my payments thoughts over the last month have been on identity it is time to move on to settlement. Understanding the process of settlement is key to understanding both payments and banking. 

Today’s blog hopes to address 4 questions

  • What are the fundamental innovations in settlement?
  • How will innovations change competitive dynamics?
  • How will innovations change political dynamics?
  • What flows will be impacted?

Nobel economists Coase/Williamson demonstrated how transaction costs shaped the Nature of the Firm. Settlement systems define the transaction costs of finance. Thus settlement system design shapes the organization of financial services. Settlement is in the midst of a revolution as many parties seek to remake settlement as the “base” platform capable of unbundling financial services.

Settlement provides the legal structures and operating rules required to clear $USD Trillions per day are 95% across multiple parties. Banking is a connected business, if the world was in a single account there would be no settlement issues as everyone would be on the same ledger. 

As with all networks increasing scale results in increased network rigidity and existing participants consider how changes impact the value they receive and their unique competitive dynamics. For example, many of the proposed changes to settlement will impact correspondent banking. While some see opportunities to reduce the “cost” of correspondent banking, others providing the correspondent services see change as a reduction in revenue.  While the tech of settlement is fascinating, at the end of the day one counterparty has to trust the netting process to permit funds to flow from their account. 

While there is no near-term cliff, settlement innovations may result in a dramatic shift of payment volume. Today V, MA, SWIFT, EFT, … ALL run on the same settlement process. As most of you know, there is over $4T of market cap driven by networks residing on TOP OF settlement.  For example, card networks do not move funds, but rather are messaging networks. While the legal and operational structure of settlement may not change, a change in technology can have significant implications for how messages operate between trusted parties and the DIRECT ACCESS of non-banks (ex PSPs, non-banks, …etc.).  

This is a HIGHLY POLITICAL undertaking, with many change advocates working to reduce the power of US/EU banks and sanctions controls. Changes in settlement have the potential to unbundle banking, payments drive changes to central bank power and FCY reserves. Where open banking breaks open the FRONT END, settlement remakes the back end. For example, if risk in settlement can be managed by specialists commercial/retail banking (and payments) could move toward a model which resembles modern financial markets (clearing process is a commodity).

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MRC Recap – Looking up – A Retailers Perspective On Payments

I’m glad I made the decision to attend my very first Merchant Risk Council event this week. For those that don’t know, MRC Vegas is the second largest payment event in the US (after M2020) but with a VERY different focus. MRC is attended by the “hands on” payment leaders from all the top merchants and the vendors that serve them: Stripe, Adyen, PayPal, V, MA, risk, fraud,  …. Etc. Whereas M2020 is attended by FinTech, Crypto, Venture, Institutional investor, and strategy audiences, MRC is much more focused on making payments work

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Identity, Authentication and Risk

Bridging Domains – Short Blog – Random Thoughts

This is a “Random Thoughts” blog, which means there are many points that I’ve left hanging (not finished cleanly). The blog’s objective is to stimulate discussion, so please don’t hesitate to comment.  Identity is a hot topic for me with 15+ years of previous bosts. Here are a few updates … as well as my evolving perspective. 

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Real Time Payments in US – Strategic Shifts

Short Blog. I’ll expand on this next month. 

As I’ve written about since September, and seen in yesterday’s press (WSJ), top US issuers are have created a new consortium with a first phase product centered on a white labeled SRC wallet. For investors, 100% of payment types in this wallet will be existing cards (no new retail payment network). Their partners are the key eCom gateways (Stripe, Square, Shopify, …etc). 

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Part 3 – Internet 2.5 – The Next “Wave” is Here

Happy After Thanksgiving! Hope everyone was able to enjoy a wonderful time with family and friends. Today is the 3rd installment of the series, a long blog. 
The next big network wave is here. Call it web 2.5 or 3.0, but the integration of payments into “everything” is a major event. Payments are the “trust layer” that TRANSFORM anonymous nodes providing uncertain service into known, defined and guaranteed service providers. Effective communities require value exchange and “trust”. The payment trust function enables networks to evolve from “cost free” discovery and information sharing, into transactional resource/service exchange: from read-write to read-write-execute. Sure we could call the wave “trust” but the only ubiquitous “trust network” is payments so I prefer to keep payment wave as the naming convention.

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Random Thoughts – Modularity and Trust

Trust in a transaction. In another one of my favorite books  (Design Rules: modularity) there exists the concept of trust between physical components of an integrated system. This book stands in contrast to Nobel Economists’ work in defining the “Firm” and organizational boundaries in Transaction Cost Economics (TCE). But the technical theory of modularity is amazingly consistent with the concepts of “boundaries” in TCE. In modularity, there are 4 core rules for separating technical components:

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Part 2 – The Power of Bank Networks

The Bull Case for V/MA (24 pages). 

© Starpoint LLP, 2022. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced in whole or in part in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner.

Part 1 – US Payments Environment covered the complexity of the US payment environment and the challenges faced by top banks in modernizing their systems (where all systems live forever). There are many types of payments: bill payments, A2A, P2P, wires.. Today the focus is on how banks intermediate commerce. Banks MUST have networks as every bank can’t connect to every consumer/merchant. Effective Bank networks (aka rails) are NOT a commodity service, but one that allows the banks to leverage their unique ability to assume risk.

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