Stablecoin Scenarios

Summary

The digital asset ecosystem has graduated from a decade of speculative experimentation to a decisive phase of infrastructure modernization. For fifteen years, the discourse surrounding blockchain technology has been dominated by the volatility of crypto-assets, effectively obscuring the underlying utility of the technology. That era has concluded. We are now witnessing the industrialization of the sector, where stablecoins have emerged not as a new form of money, but as a fundamental settlement innovation (see blog).

The GENIUS Act has provided the regulatory clarity required to transition stablecoins from the periphery of finance to its very core. This legislative milestone has catalyzed a geopolitical shockwave, prompting European finance ministers to declare U.S. stablecoins a greater threat to monetary sovereignty than trade tariffs. But while the Genius act codified “trust” in an instrument (reducing settlement risk to stablecoin issuer balance sheet), it does not address disputes and broader governance issues associated with managing participants across diverse processes and regulatory regimes.

The maturation of stablecoins is not a revolution that overthrows established banks and payments system; it is an evolution that upgrades it. The rails are being replaced while the train is moving, and those who understand the mechanics of the new tracks will determine the destination of global capital.

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101 Update: CBDCs, Stablecoins and Tokenized Deposits

Very short update on the basic differences for the non-payment geeks

The three core constructs of digital value —CBDCs, Stablecoins, and Tokenized Deposits—represent have various degrees of support from banks, central banks, businesses and regulators. Each has different risk and control points.

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X402 Foundation

Short Blog

The x402 Foundation was publicly announced last week on September 23, 2025, as a joint initiative between Coinbase and Cloudflare. This effort aims to solve the governance issue in agentic. The design COULD SOLVE the governance issues outlined in Governance in Payments as well as last month’s Agentic Commerce Economics and Governance. As a refresh, my position is that monetization/governance is the Gordian knot preventing AI from moving to next stage of growth. 

While Google’s AP2 suffers from a dependency on settlement governance and the inability to expand trust beyond their own domain (see AP2 blog), x402 is just a standard that handles payment terms negotiations between two APIs (both price and method). The foundation turns x402 into a “network) with an operational model, active governance and economics. My example is that an existing customer would have payment managed with a current card on file and the merchant owning risk, whereas a new customer (or new machine request) could agree on a non-refundable stablecoin payment.  

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EWS Assessing Stablecoin Issuance?

Very Short Blog

Zelle owner Early Warning Services exploring stablecoin [Issuance] for retail bank customers. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zelle-owner-early-warning-services-exploring-stablecoin-for-retail-bank-customers-154503674.html

EWS is certainly the right consortium to Issue a SC given KYC and their existing RT Zelle settlement rails (which also integrate to TCH RTP). The CX interface for particiapting zelle banks is also there, setting up a “transfer” like issuance process. Within Online Banking the big change will be showing stablecoin balances in a new account or something.

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Stablecoins Will Drive Network Growth

Drivers, Current Efforts and My View of the Big Picture Opportunity. Do Stablecoins represent the greatest network expansion opportunity of the next decade? I think so…

PODCAST of this Blog on Spotify

Everyone knows I’m a big fan of Visa and Mastercard. Why not? They are the most successful commercial networks in the history of man. The power of banking is unlocked within the networks that connect them (see Power of Bank Networks) and V/MA are the largest “connectors” in the world (banks, consumers, businesses). While many pundits see stablecoin as a threat to cards, I don’t see it that way at all. In fact, I think Stablecoin-based innovation will help drive a new phase of growth in the networks (as well as dollarization). 

Today’s blog provides background on the current network efforts in stablecoin settlement. I’m also attempting to outline the “why” and business case for card networks expanding their role, the number of nodes on the network, and the political dynamics at work behind the scenes. Why read this? In my view this subject is the core of a bull case for network expansion.  IMHO Investors should not look at stablecoins as a threat to V/MA, but rather as another network where V/MA can deliver value and grow the network at a massive scale.. A once-in-a-generation opportunity.

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Genius Law – What to Expect?

Yesterday President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law, clearing the path for dollar-backed stablecoins. As I’ve argued before, the future of money is a new model of trust, and this legislation provides the regulatory certainty needed for that trust. 

The GENIUS Act is a landmark piece of legislation. It establishes a dual charter system, enabling both federal and state-regulated stablecoin issuers. The key provisions are precisely what the industry needed: a mandate for 1:1 reserves with high-quality liquid assets like cash and short-term treasuries, a prohibition on reusing those reserves, and the designation of issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This isn’t just about compliance; it’s about building a foundation of trust that can be exported globally.

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Stablecoin Plays and Players – Issuers, Infrastructure, and Innovators

Today’s blog is focused on private companies, business models, and competitive dynamics shaping the stablecoin “industry”. Note Google Gemini was used in discerning company performance and focus.

No we are not going to drill into every company in Block’s DeFi market overview, Stablecoin Liquidity, or the 172 companies in CB Insights Stabllecoin industry map…  but rather some highlights and how the market is likely to evolve in near term. Even though I”m focusing on just a few of the companies below, this is still a rather long 25 pages.

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Retail Banking and Stablecoins

Friction, Float, and the Future

As a Banker, Founder and Payment Historian who has spent too long watching icebergs melt, I’ve seen many technologies promise to upend the banking industry. Most have been evolutionary, not revolutionary. But the advent of digital dollars, particularly consumer-facing stablecoins, are unique. Payments are the core of retail banking and profitability. Payments are a networked business, not just in card but in every consortium and association. As I outlined in The Power of Bank Networks, these networks are the engines that drive economies and how banks connect to the environment. For my colleagues in banking and payments, understanding how (or if) stablecoins impact payments is very important.

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Stablecoin Winners and Losers

Summary

Winners:

  • Card Networks (Mostly Insulated): Their core business as ubiquitous real-time messaging networks for authorization and value-added services is largely unaffected. They are the top on=ramp (Visa Direct) and the top off-ramp (linked card). Networks will expand services to support issuer demand for stablecoin settlement and services. Within OECD 20 markets, there is no merchant demand for stablecoin in eCommerce.  
  • Emerging Markets: Stablecoins provide crucial financial access, inflation hedging, and efficient remittances where traditional banking is broken or local currencies are unstable, especially in Africa.  
  • Edge and Non-Card UCs. Low value payments, remittances, … 
  • Corporate Treasury and Treasury Platforms: Fortune 100 enterprises gain significant efficiencies in cash management through real-time liquidity, reduced costs, and enhanced transparency.  
  • Dollarization – US Treasury: The growth of USD-pegged stablecoins, driven by regulations like the Genius Act, creates substantial demand for US Treasuries, reinforcing dollar dominance. Tether is already a top buyer.  
  • Existing Banks: Despite some fee pressure, banks are adapting by integrating stablecoins into their services, leveraging their customer relationships and regulatory expertise to remain central players.  
  • Fintech Enablers (Stripe, Shopify): These platforms expand their global reach by making stablecoin acceptance and payouts easier for merchants, particularly in cross-border commerce.  
  • KYC/AML Service Providers: Increased regulatory clarity and stablecoin adoption drive demand for robust identity verification and anti-money laundering services.
  • Wallets/Consumer Champion? PayPal? Enabling wallets in non-carded markets and a new model in eCom and POS (this is Stripe Privy).
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