I’m a big fan of PayPal, but as they approach 100x earnings I’m on the look out for risks. While PayPal is BEST positioned as the ONLY company to solely focus on eCommerce payments AND A UNIQUE ability to “own the rules”as a 3 party network, they are not without significant risk. 2020 has 2 major threats that can hit them very very quickly.
#1 Apple Pay in Browser
I’ve been writing about this for 5 years and it is finally here. While I was certainly off in my projected 2016 timing, I was not off in the user experience. Take 2 minutes to do the following
Continue reading “PayPal Threats – 2020”
17 Jun 2020
Short Blog today. Before jumping in.. I’ve been working on 2 significant blog series
- Consolidation in Financial Services. Given convergence of several forces, we are in the midst of a consolidation of networks, and services. The pandemic has placed new strains on sub scale players, which will provide the basis for significant M&A. My involvement in the deal flow has slowed the writing down.
- Big Tech, Neo Banks and Financial Services. Looking to give the “inside baseball” look at what is really happening.
I’ve got over 100 pages of material… hope to get it out in bite size chunks in a few weeks.
EU and Apple Pay
From today’s WSJ and also on Forbes, the EU announced 2 investigations:
Continue reading “EU probe of Apple Pay”
Paypal is very well positioned to capture new volume both short term and long term growth
First off, best wishes to you and your family during these challenging times. I had intended to get this out last week, but found the need to invest in family. My family is doing fine, I’m fortunate to have all of my children, grandchildren and parents within 10 miles of Davidson North Carolina. We are like the rest of you, navigating needs for family support and volunteering in our community.. All of which has changed up our schedules. My hope is that we all find some way to create good out of this terrible event.
In this Blog
Continue reading “Payments in the Pandemic – Paypal”
- Massive disruption in Commerce has created fundamental changes in payments and consumer behavior.
- Discretionary and T+E spend is dropping 40-80%. Visa and Mastercard have both revised growth from mid teens to low single digits. Paypal has maintained low end guidance.
- eCommerce is clear winner right now, estimate that Paypal’s core eCommerce TPV could be 40-60% above average
- Consumer behavior changes driven by the pandemic will rapidly accelerate the move away from physical retail (See 1 April WSJ).
- Paypal is very well positioned to capture new volume both short term and long term growth.
WSJ Thursday 2/20 – Fidelity Spinning out Akoya
Much more than a spin out.. 12-18 banks got together and purchased Akoya with FMR retaining some of the equity. The new entity will have a BOD and Advisory committee comprised of banks.
Akoya is the “data middleman” between bank platforms and aggregates. For example, if JPMC or Bank of America had an existing OFX service, Akoya could wrap that bespoke integration, add tokenized credentials and be the common integration point for PLAID, Intuit or Yodlee.
Continue reading “New Bank Consortium Created Around Akoya”
Short blog on the Apple card and Apple’s history in bringing ApplePay to market
21 Jan 2020
I love my Apple Card.. both the physical card – with its wonderful “feel” – as well as the virtual card and how it is integrated into the Apple Pay Wallet. These payment jewels are all part of a Services Business growing at 20% CAGR that could be worth $650B by next year (MotleyFool).
Continue reading “Apple Card”
17 January – Good news.. the right thing just happened.
This week we finally saw the “official death” of Visa Checkout and Mastercard’s “Masterpass”. Do you remember all those Superbowl commercials with Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald? Per my April 2018 blog, this “branded button” approach makes no sense at all at a time where Visa/MA are positioned to play a much more critical position as the central token directory. This means we will no longer see the “NASCAR like Checkout” I referenced 5 yrs ago when JPMC launched the much ridiculed ChasePay. Visa’s top 5 brand will no longer have an appended “checkout” on it (which no one used or understood).
Continue reading “Adios Visa Checkout”
My quick read on Visa’s acquisition of Plaid
I’m back to blogging after a successful exit last month. The Plaid acquisition is a great way for me to jump back in. Why read this? A key to understanding payments, banking and data is to balance historical knowledge with a network of people that know what is really happening behind the scenes. As the former head of two direct banks, former Senior Director of Oracle’s advanced technology solution’s practice and Yodlee’s first customer I have an informed perspective on the market for this one.
Continue reading “Plaid – Quick Take”
21 March 2019
Happy First Day of Spring! I don’t know how many people still read this silly blog. I’m in a CEO time warp and just realized I haven’t written anything since NOVEMBER!! This will be a short blog with some random thoughts.
Big moves in Payments this quarter.
- Visa, Mastercard, Paypal, Global Payments and others are at ALL TIME HIGHS today.
- Worldpay to be acquired by FIS for $43B
- First Data to be acquired by Fiserv for $22B (all stock)
Continue reading “Big Moves in Payments”
My Forbes Article Last Week
What We Can Learn From Rocket Science About Closing The Sales-Marketing Loop
Payments plays a key role in trust, not only during the sale.. but also in providing transparency to merchants on marketing effectiveness. Sales is the ultimate report card on what happened. Using this data in real time can double marketing effectiveness.
While Commerce Signals has taken me away from my Space Analyst stuff (see link), I’m very proud to know that my old team is landing Elon’s rockets (see Wiki).
Note: I’m not subjective on this one as I’m both an investor and former BOD member of hyperWallet. Of course I’m biased on all of my others too.. but just don’t have much of a financial stake.
Paypal has been on a tear in 2018, and is the leading payment stock performer in last 12 months – up over 60%. Continue reading “Paypal is on a TEAR.. iZettle and hyperWALLET”