An example of how Stablecoins could take off for global consumers with the backing of a BigTech. I view this as a low probability and my purpose of painting this picture is for discussion.

Stablecoins have been a significant focus for my blog over the last 45 days. A quick recap of my 8 blogs on topic

• Stablecoin growth is booming in the areas of remittance, cross-border, disbursement, and B2B supply chain(see Stablecoin Predictions). The best consumer UCs for stablecoin are in Africa 
• Stripe and Apple are committed to the card model for eCom because of the economics, ubiquity and consumer preference. (see April Stablecoin Announcements)
• US Banks will be successful in their own stablecoin efforts, as the Genius Act forces every USD stablecoin issuer to be compliant with US KYC and AML, these payment hub banks know how to manage the risk and also create an “on demand” model to transition liabilities to stablecoins. From a US bank perspective stablecoins are just another rail. 
• Stripe/Bridge will be a leader in how stablecoin is deployed at merchants, near term the focus will be internal, enabling stripe’s own cross border clearing to be more efficient, and extending that capability to large merchants. 
• Stablecoin is a settlement innovation that also provides programmable features. These programmable features can be brought into the card networks with or without stablecoin. (see Programmable Money) 
• Visa and MA well situated to be the off ramps for stablecoin.
• The top consumer UC by far is remittance, with Sling Money as my favorite model. They challenge for Sling and others will be adopting to Genius act compliance as all stablecoin issuers pursue bank licenses. 
• Both Google and Apple are considering Stablecoin for global P2P in a model that aligns to what Sling delivers. 

Picking a Scenario

Today, let’s briefly discuss a scenario where Stablecoin gains consumer traction beyond Africa and remittances. To be clear, I don’t believe that this scenario will occur in the next 3-5 yrs, but outlining it will stimulate conversation. 

For any new payment type, traction must start at either the merchant (ie, Amazon One Click, Target RedCard) or the consumer (Apple Pay, PayPal, GPay, …). To change consumer behavior, there must be an incremental value with the change (see 20% hurdle), AND also provide an intuitive reason why consumers should use this new approach vs what they have already established. Potential scenarios that fit these criteria

• Large consumer champion with global footprint driving a new capability. Example Google and Agentic Commerce, or Facebook and Whatsapp micro payments (a refresh of Libra). 
• Merchant consolidator like Stripe enabling global recurring payments, subscriptions or other micropayments to app developers globally with a linked consumer account (ie stored value). 
• A government backed effort to defeat V/MA like EPI’s Wero going all in on Stablecoin. 

I’m picking #1 for the purpose of conversation. Google enables Stablecoin.  Within the list of prospects, Google is the only company with deep experience as a consumer front end, integrating local schemes such as UPI and PIX. For Google the potential UCs are also significant 

• Global P2P for google account holders (a 15 yr goal)
• Micropayments for apps and in app, from phone to TV (Globally)
• Recurring payments for Google services
• Improved management of existing stored value accounts (across MSB, NBFC and ELM licenses)
• Agentic commerce payments. Google could take the risk on a single card payment to Google (as merchant) and then manage payments to each merchant within the agentic “buindle”. A new form of GPay acquisition that would kill the checkout page. (A significant effort)
• Expand the UPI “pay anyone” engine via stablecoin to enable a pay anyone interface to any merchant or consumer globally. This would be a huge expansion of what Google has already built in India (with 18% market share). 
• A new settlement engine for core advertising purchases. For example, back in 2011 when I was at Google we paid Amex over $400M a year in interchange. Imagine a new global stablecoin settlement system for all ad purchases. This could be invisible to the add buyer. (THis is not a consumer UC, but wanted to put this down for context).
• Enable merchant micro payments for advertising UCs

Where would I start? 

• Non US market where consumers are able to buy USD stablecoins, 
• High cross border needs (or with card issues). 
• Strong KYC in place with government-backed digital credential issuance. Estonia, Singapore, India, Sweden, UAE, SK, EU, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia
• Product focus? Given that Google has already built the UPI payanyone engine I would work to make that available and ensure integration with AppStore for micropayments and recurring payments. 
• A pay anyone service is not a threat to cards, but rather a threat to ACH and bill pay. 
• The only potential area where cards to be impacted is if Stablecoin focus is in agentic payments (IMHO)

Hurdles and Headwinds

• Consumers acquiring USD stablecoins post GENIUS act will require them to go through US KYC. Will other stablecoins develop? One from the UAE would be very interesting for ROW but I would encounter the AML issues in transferring value to any US consumer/business. In other words US AML bites the world when any US entity is a either end of the transaction (as it should). 
• Stablecoin Issuers that would support Google as a platform for stablecoin transactions. Don’t think there is an issue here as Google is one of the only entities that can manage digital credentials as well as legacy device based risk. 
• On ramps and off ramps. Merchant/Beneficiary value would be greatest where costs are reduced. Visa Direct would be the best ubiquitous off ramp. If volume grows, I think local banks would develop their own clearing mechanisms for stablecoin transactions
• Regulatory Reporting. This could be a bear, particularly in light of the Genius act. How would google communicate the identity of the sender and receiver? It is the stablecoin Issuer that will hold the responsibility, thus the interface(s) must be defined. 
• Stablecoin Issuer/counterparty risk. 
• ELM/MSB licenses. Paying your electric bill or  ecommerce transactions are not highly regulated, rather it is remittances. It is important to navigate the regional licensing and regulatory risks associates with each type of transaction. 

Could all of this be done with card? Yes (in carded markets).

While cards are ubiquitous in OECD 20 countries, they are not for ROW. Stablecoins may provide the best alternative. Even in this UC, I don’t see leakage of Card GDV to Stablecoin (beyond the Agentic UC). 

Thoughts appreciated.