Europe’s Siege – Digital Sovereignty Strategy

Summary

EU’s  payment and identity landscape is currently the theater of a high-stakes conflict between regulatory ambition and commercial reality. For the past decade, European legislators have pursued a strategy of “regulatory innovation,” attempting to break the dominance of US-based technology platforms (Apple, Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) through legislative mandates. From the failed efforts of 2015 IFR (regulating excess profits), PSD2, PSD3 and eIDAS 2.0, the pattern is consistent: enforce technical openness in the hope that competitive markets will spontaneously emerge.

This strategy is fundamentally flawed because it conflates technical connectivity with commercial viability. While the EU has successfully legislated open APIs and is now forcing open the phone SE architecture, it has consistently failed to address the “commercial constructs” (governance, liability, and economic incentives) that make these systems work. Without a radical shift acknowledging the necessity of commercial constructs over regulation, the EU’s initiatives will result in compliant but commercially irrelevant infrastructure, that no one will monetize (or invest in), further relegating the EU to a second tier market and leaving US platforms to dominate.

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Machine to Machine Transactions: How to Resolve Trust and Governance Gaps. 

FIDO, VC, AP2, Tokenization, Credential Issuance, Biometrics, …etc

Executive Summary

The transition to agentic, machine-to-machine (M2M) commerce creates a profound governance gap that existing technology-first standards cannot fill. Today, human-in-the-loop (HIL) transactions, whether at a point-of-sale or in eCommerce, are secured not by technology alone, but by the robust, contract-based governance and risk-allocation models of networks like Visa and Mastercard. As stated previously, V/MA are the identity infrastructure for the internet and identity is the core “shaping force” for all new payment schemes.

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Governance in Payments

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Long blog – Paid Content

Executive Summary

I’ve been writing about governance, trust, transaction costs and payments for a long time. In my view THE KEY to understanding how stablecoins, agentic, DeFi, Open Banking, tokenization and other payment innovations is governance. I seem to be the only one writing about it, so I don’t see a reason to stop now. Governance is the BIGGEST competitive moat for Visa and Mastercard, and its also the heart of their biggest break out growth opportunity. If you thought AI was transformational, radically reducing transaction costs (TCE per Nobel work of Ronald Coase) will dwarf it. In fact the monetization of AI is a Gordian knot of governance issues (see Agentic Commerce and Governance). 

Today I’m expanding on “value exchange” governance with 5 core themes.

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Google Rolls out Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2) – Techie Blog

Yesterday Google rolled out AP2. Key summary bullets

  • I applaud Google’s efforts to advance AP with first focus on enabling a “Trusted Agent Economy”. AP2 (V0.1) on establishing the core architecture and enabling the most common use cases (cards, data payloads to support VC, human in the loop scenarios with step up). 
  • Long list of supporting participants including MA and Amex. However, no other AI platforms, nor Visa, Paze, or US Banks. 
  • Good detailed documentation on initial flows (see Github)
  • Introduction of Verifiable Credentials (VC) as the core of AP2 with a recognition that merchants (who own risk) may also need transaction fraud data. 
  • A twist on the identity provider of VC to become the [Payment] Credential provider, with initial focus on cards, Google has stated goal of designing AP2 to support stablecoin, push payment and other payment types. This “sets up” Visa and Mastercard to retain their roles as the authentication infrastructure for the internet, while also allowing for other networks (India UPI) and seperate identity providers (eID) to operate with the role.
  • My read is that Google has given up hope of making AP2 work in US, as Visa’s intelligent commerce framework is further along.  How tokens, Issuers and networks work within AP2 is not a big technical effort, but there are several things missing from AP2, for example the rule sets (3DS, DAF, TAF, …etc) which the credential (and transaction) operates under. 
  • The framework is solid, authentication will be a huge part of the challenge here.  Payment networks must control how authentication is performed by with their credentials. Visa and mastercard are the authentication infrastructure for the internet for a reason. Its not the technology, it is the governance, standards, enforcement and the operating rules which govern WHO OWNS THE RISK when authentication has broken. See Identity Models and Governance https://blog.starpointllp.com/?p=6470 
  • Of course stablecoins could work here, but guess who owns the risk when something happened that wasn’t authorized? There is no bank to complain to.. Your automated agent made a mistake and you (the consumer) have the loss.
  • AP2 will be successful as the communication protocol for between agents and stakeholders, but it requires credential providers with strong governance and operating rule constructs. Visa, MA, Amex, UPI/UIDAS and PayPal all fit that bill.  The challenge with this dependency is that the control points for progress are complex, as any change in a network requires buy in from existing stakeholders.
  • Expect Google to demonstrate the technical efficacy of AP2 with Stablecoin or Crypto first, and then look to adapt AP2 needs to credential providers
  • While the EU is the best market for Google to begin with, regulators are not keen on doing anything to help US big tech. My recommendation to Google is work on a US focus plan B that will involve US credential providers (ie Visa and Visa banks). AP2 can be the protocol, but most of it will need to operate within the authentication and rules of the credential provider.

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The Realities of On-Chain Finance: Why Closed Ledgers Will Lead the Way

Short Blog.

New technology rarely disrupts industries overnight. Instead, it is first used by existing players in established markets to gain a competitive edge. On-chain finance is no different. While decentralized finance (DeFi) and public blockchains promise a future of open financial networks, the immediate growth will come from closed, permissioned ledgers operated by financial institutions.

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