Short Blog
Key Themes in Today’s Blog
- OpenAI’s Operator release is a must-see
- Agentic Commerce is in full hype mode. Some of it is deserved, but most is not.
- Consumers love to shop, and there is certainly an opportunity to provide better curated products with trusted reviews and estimates of quality, warranty, and lifecycle (all in) costs.
- Merchants are wary of yet another tool that accelerates price competition, and they are well-placed to block or impair robots.
- Few Retailers manufacture their own products but rather curate, including store brands, and create a shopping experience.
- Manufacturers, CPGs and OEMs are all keen to establish direct consumer relationships (Direct to Consumer DTC). I see these parties as key participants in Agentic Commerce.
- There is also a new world for agents to unlock in: hyperlocal, customized/bespoke, used/refurbished, bundles, specialized communities, shared/rental and local inventory.
- While initial agents focus on orchestration and price comparison, understanding your preferences, friends and habits will be core to success. No single company owns all of these data sets.
- There are many scenarios for how Agentic will evolve from those controlled by consumers and private data (federated model), to BigTech (ie smarter Alexa), to OpenAI and AI specialists.
- Payments and Identity (my two focus areas) will be instrumental in how orchestration will work. Card networks are best placed to provide the rules around how agents can transact and what rights merchants and consumers have to dispute transactions. The alternative to Cards is crypto, and while they can handle smart contracts transactions tend to be final and irreversible with no supporting law or agreements to manage disputes.
- Every participant and respondent in an agent’s effort has a cost to respond. These costs must be allocated directly or indirectly, just as blockchain validators are paid for in DLT (ie Staking). Similarly, participants will set a different price for responses to known parties then for anonymous ones.
- In my view, the big near-term winners will be Visa and Mastercard as a single transaction becomes 20-40 interactions that their VAS will need to support. This also creates a win for Banks and Issuers. Issuers need to support V/MA in their efforts to maintain a bank role as without V/MA, Agentic commerce will likely go into DLT and Stablecoin.
The Future of Agentic Commerce
OpenAI’s Operator release is a game-changer, offering a glimpse into a world where AI agents seamlessly navigate commerce on our behalf. But as Agentic Commerce gains traction, we must separate hype from reality. While some of the excitement is well-earned, much of it is speculative.
What’s clear, however, is that consumer experiences will be fundamentally redefined. The opportunity isn’t just about automation—it’s about creating a smarter, more personal, and more enjoyable shopping experience.
The Evolution of Customer Shopping Experiences
1. From Search to Curation: AI as a Personal Shopper
Today, shopping often starts with search—typing keywords into Google, browsing endless listings, filtering through reviews, and second-guessing quality. Agentic Commerce will flip this paradigm. Instead of manually searching, consumers will describe their needs, and AI agents will handle the rest.
For example:
- Instead of searching “best red wine” an agent will evaluate your needs, check your check purchases as well as those of friends and your social network, find your brand preferences, assess availability, factor in your budget, and curate a shortlist of top options.
- The agent may also fetch trusted reviews, compare availability in local inventory at stores near you, and ask your friends if they want to share a case.
The experience shifts from a frustrating research process to effortless curation tailored to your needs.
2. Understanding Context: Shopping Based on Your Life
Consumers don’t shop in isolation—preferences are shaped by lifestyle, location, and even social circles. AI agents will factor in these details:
- Personalized Recommendations: If you’re a frequent traveler, your agent will prioritize lightweight, durable, and airline-friendly luggage, while a parent’s agent might recommend kid-friendly, stain-resistant products.
- Context-Aware Shopping: Your AI might suggest a rain-resistant jacket if it knows you’re visiting London next week or a new couch if it sees you just moved.
3. Seamless Multi-Source Shopping: New Ways to Buy
Today’s e-commerce is dominated by centralized platforms (Amazon, Walmart, etc.), but Agentic Commerce unlocks new sourcing models:
- Hyperlocal Shopping: Your agent can check real-time local inventory, helping you buy from nearby stores (even small businesses), reducing shipping times and supporting local economies.
- Bespoke & Custom Goods: AI can connect you directly with artisans and small manufacturers who create made-to-order products that match your exact preferences.
- Refurbished & Sustainable Options: Instead of defaulting to new products, your AI might find certified refurbished models with full warranties at a fraction of the cost.
4. Social & Community-Based Shopping
AI will bridge the gap between social shopping and traditional e-commerce. Instead of relying on random influencer promotions, Agentic Commerce can tap into your actual network:
- Friend & Community Recommendations: If your close friends love a certain product, your AI might prioritize those recommendations over anonymous reviews.
- Shared Purchases & Group Buys: Your AI might coordinate group purchases for bulk discounts or help organize rental/shared ownership models (e.g., high-end camera gear, sports equipment).
5. Better Transparency: No More Hidden Costs or Fake Reviews
One of the biggest frustrations in shopping today is misleading information—whether it’s fake reviews, deceptive pricing, or hidden fees. AI agents will help solve this by:
- Verifying Reviews: AI can cross-check multiple sources to weed out fake reviews and only highlight trusted feedback.
- Factoring in All-In Costs: Instead of just showing a sticker price, an agent will calculate the true cost of ownership, including:
- Warranty & repair costs
- Subscription or add-on fees
- Resale value (if you plan to upgrade later)
This means consumers won’t just find the cheapest option but the best long-term value.
6. Effortless Buying & Negotiation
Once your AI has found the right product, it can handle the purchase for you:
- Auto-Fill Checkout & Payments: No more typing card details—the AI completes purchases securely.
- Dynamic Negotiation: Just like airlines adjust pricing based on demand, merchants might set different prices for different consumers. Your AI could negotiate better deals based on loyalty status or bulk purchases.
7. Post-Purchase Support & Lifecycle Management
Shopping doesn’t end when you click “buy.” AI can revolutionize post-purchase experiences:
- Automated Returns & Warranty Claims: If your item is defective, your AI can automatically file a claim and even negotiate a refund or replacement.
- Smart Reminders & Upgrades: Your AI can track when it’s time for a replacement—for example, reminding you to replace your running shoes after 500 miles of use.
The Merchant’s Perspective: A Double-Edged Sword
While consumers stand to gain tremendously, merchants have mixed feelings. Agentic Commerce could:
- Increase price competition, making it harder for retailers to differentiate beyond price.
- Drive more direct-to-consumer (DTC) models, as manufacturers seek to bypass middlemen.
- Shift power to financial networks (Visa/Mastercard) and identity providers, as payments and authentication become central to AI-driven transactions.
To stay relevant, merchants will need to invest in curation, exclusive products, and experiences that go beyond price. Those who simply rely on offering the lowest price may struggle.
The Role of Payments & Identity
Payments and identity will be the backbone of Agentic Commerce:
- Card networks (Visa/Mastercard) are well-positioned to support the explosion of micro-transactions.
- Crypto and smart contracts could enable autonomous commerce, but lack consumer protections.
- Merchants will charge different prices for verified vs. anonymous buyers, just like blockchain validators are paid for their role in consensus.
Who Wins in the Near Term?
In the short run, expect Visa and Mastercard to emerge as the biggest winners. A single AI-powered shopping session could involve 20-40 micro-interactions, from price checks to merchant approvals, all requiring their infrastructure. Banks and issuers will benefit by supporting these transactions.
However, if traditional payments fail to adapt, Agentic Commerce could shift toward decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoins, upending the traditional financial ecosystem.
Final Thoughts: The Path Forward
Agentic Commerce is more than just a better price comparison tool—it’s about reshaping the way consumers discover, buy, and interact with products. While initial implementations will focus on orchestration and automation, the real game-changer will be trust, curation, and personalization.
OpenAI’s Operator release is an exciting first step. But the real question isn’t just who will build the smartest agent—it’s who will control the ecosystem. Whether it’s Big Tech, federated models, or decentralized solutions, the future of commerce will change gradually as consumers behavior is hard to change and they love shopping.