Secure Remote Commerce – May 2022

Short Blog. I wanted to follow up on the last point I made in Bank ID Service – What Is It?

Some US Banks are refusing to jump on board SRC. As managers of risk, Banks are reluctant to accept network services which level the playing field in both managing risk and “diluting” their brand.… In some respects Authentify is a response to SRC.

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PIX Brazil – Short Blog

Brazil’s Central Bank is now recognized as the leading innovator. Both in PIX and CDBC launch this year.

Identifying new networks is a must for any investor. The growth rate of network businesses dwarf most other models as each node invests something in joining. Mobile has transformed the time for network effects to reach critical mass – moving from 20 yrs (think debit card and mobile phones) to months. When network effects take hold, Investors see opportunity in both the network core (owner) and the periphery. We also look at how new services will impact existing established players

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eCom Innovation Success – Shop Pay

Short blog as follow up to yesterday’s blog on Acceptance Hurdles in eCommerce. Successful innovation requires a great new customer experience and/or economic model. The most recent success in the US is Shopify’s Shop Pay.

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FedNow

Very short Blog – Recapping a few tweet streams.

I think FedNow is a great effort to provide an open alternative to TCH’s RTP. I’ve spoken with, and consulted for, the KC fed on a number of occasions and provided my input to the FedNow service back in 2013. Per my blog last week the survey result from the Fed’s efforts found “emergency bill payment” as the top consumer use. Paying someone faster brings on risk. The Fed depends on banks to manage risk and price that risk. As a former banker running payments at 2 of the largest banks I have a view here.

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Apple Pay Fees (Short Blog)

Thought I would give more detail on whats going on with V/MA, Issuers and Apple

Thought I would give more detail on whats going on with V/MA, Issuers and Apple (from WSJ article yesterday Apple Pay Fees Vex Issuers). Perhaps I’ll collect a fee from the WSJ.. odd that I mention Apple Pay fees on Monday to have it come up in the WSJ on Tuesday. Oh well..

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PayPal – ?Super App?

Paypal has clearly won in the massive shift to eCom/mCom during the pandemic. A time where 10 yrs worth of consumer behavior change was compressed into 18 months (behaviors which will stick long-term). However, the future growth story must ride on something else AND Paypal must prove it can generate improving margins within that growth

PayPal has been my #1 holding for last 5 yrs, and it has been on a fantastic ride… especially so over the last 18 months! (see MVP – Continued Domination for more). 

Paypal announced 2Q21 earnings 2 weeks ago (7.28). TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with. Earnings? Not so much as margin erosion has hit the business. One core driver of margin has investors particularly concerned: “Take rate” (net merchant revenue less cost to clear payments) fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. 

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Case for CBDC – Market Efficiency

Given that I’m building a new Company focused on Crypto acceptance in physical assets (stealth – pilot in 3 weeks), I thought I would share some perspective on the drivers of Crypto, CBDC and Decentralized Finance (DeFi).

There are about 50,000 people that read this blog.. Glad you enjoy it.. I’m most surprised anyone can stand my writing style for that long (sorry for all the typos – no editor). 

As most of you know I love to read the arcane (ex favorite book is Weak Linksrelated blog) and I love economists. Today I’m reading some of Thomas Phillippon’s research (NYU’s economist and author of The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets). Many of you will recall I covered Dr. Phillppon’s work in my 2015 blog Changing Economics of Payments. My summary of Phillippon’s work:

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ApplePay Accept (Mobeewave) in October

My track record on Apple is pretty good.. having broke the Apple Pay news in 2014 and Last August I announced the Apple/Mobeewave acquisition. Apple is great at keeping secrets… perhaps the best tech company in the world in this regard. My latest forecast? Apple will enable payment acceptance in the US this October with Elavon as payment processing partner.

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Growth Vector #1 – Embedding Payments

Embedding of payments into new commerce and business flows will quickly drive $500BTPV gains over the next 5 yrs and replace eCommerce as the source of TPV growth. Cash, ACH, and other Networks (ex Swift) will lose, MVP, Adyen and others will gain.

Pardon Typos.. still in proof mode

Previous Blogs on Topic 

  1. Payments in the OS – Browser Tokens – May 2016
  2. Payment in the OS – mCom/eCom Converge – Dec 2014
  3. Apple Pay in Browser – Mar 2016
  4. eCom Thoughts – Sept 2015
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TCH – Real Time Payments

TCH’s RTP service is capable of much more than just P2P, particularly given its role in tokenization of all cards. I was rather surprised to hear 5 of 6 top banks would rather work with PayPal than Visa/MA on this.. (And this was a KEY reason I moved to buy Paypal stock 24 mo ago).

Its been 18 mo since my last TCH update. As a quick refresh, the reason everyone cares about the TCH project, is that TCH is the ONLY place that the top 6 bank CEOs get together to collaborate on payments. TCH operates CHIPS (the largest private ACH network in the world), settling around $1.5T of payments PER DAY (think stock market, B2B, V, MA… everything). Within the ACH scheme every member bank has a settlement account and a nightly Net Settlement process is run. 

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