Challenger Banks: What the Sell-Side is Telling Us

July 2026 — Tom Noyes

Eight months ago I wrote The Neobank Revolution? Not how I see it… after sitting through FinTech NerdCon and listening to the Nubank co-founder and Chime present. My verdict was skeptical: growth is not profitability, the US addressable market is structurally unattractive, and the liabilities of every neobank combined barely register on JPMorgan’s balance sheet.

I was right about some of it. I was wrong about enough of it that this update is warranted and this time I want to ground the analysis in what sell-side analytsts are publishing, not just my own read.

Continue reading

Fedwire for Fintechs – Opportunities

I want to break down what the May 19, 2026 Executive Order on financial technology actually means for our industry. If you are looking for a basic textbook explanation of Fedwire or the National Settlement Service (NSS), you will not find it here. See my blog Settlement – Core of Banking for how the plumbing works. Today, I’m on what this EO means for Fintechs, with a discussion on the operational constraints likely to occur.

The day after the President signed the executive order, the Federal Reserve Board dropped a formal proposal to establish a special-purpose “Payment Account”. This is a streamlined, payments-only account category designed to bypass the traditional Master Account bottleneck. Under the new framework, the Fed is promising a 90-day review timeline for Tier 2 and Tier 3 non-bank applicants. 

This sounds like a massive win, but as we look at the fine print, the operational reality is a lot more complicated. Here is my breakdown of the core opportunities, the constraints, and the economic hurdles you need to consider.

Continue reading