Challenger Banks: What the Sell-Side is Telling Us

July 2026 — Tom Noyes

Eight months ago I wrote The Neobank Revolution? Not how I see it… after sitting through FinTech NerdCon and listening to the Nubank co-founder and Chime present. My verdict was skeptical: growth is not profitability, the US addressable market is structurally unattractive, and the liabilities of every neobank combined barely register on JPMorgan’s balance sheet.

I was right about some of it. I was wrong about enough of it that this update is warranted and this time I want to ground the analysis in what sell-side analytsts are publishing, not just my own read.

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Future of Retail Banking – Part 5

This is the last of my 5 part blog series that started over 6 months ago. As a pragmatist, my views will likely be unpopular (and perhaps incorrect), but they are informed. Most of this blog will be obvious to US Retail Bankers and payment teams; the more interesting parts may be around Fintech and Asia. The exec summary captures the entire blog, it’s a new format.. I’m going to break down the detail of these points in separate posts. Today is Part A  

For quick reference, I’ve listed the links to the previous blogs. 

  1. Part 1 – US Payments Environment – Drivers of Change
  2. Part 2 – Power of Bank Networks
  3. Part 3 – Last Mile: Internet 2.5 – Embedding Financial Services
  4. Part 4 – Network Innovation – The Efficacy of V/MA
  5. Part 5 – Future of Retail/Commercial Banking … What Will Define Bank Success? 

The reason for this blog is to interact and challenge… please feel free to do so.

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