Stablecoins and Monetary Policy: The ECB Confirms What Italy Said Last Year

The ECB published a study today warning that stablecoins could erode retail deposits across the eurozone and undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The finding is notable — not because it’s new, but because it’s taken this long for the institution to officially say it.

As I related last May, Italy’s Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti made exactly this argument, warning that the displacement of traditional bank deposits by dollar-denominated stablecoins represented a direct threat to European monetary sovereignty. His remarks were largely dismissed at the time as political protectionism. The ECB’s study vindicates the concern. The mechanism is straightforward: if depositors move funds from bank accounts into stablecoins, banks lose the deposit base that anchors their lending capacity — and the ECB loses its primary transmission channel for monetary policy. Rate changes simply don’t land the same way when the money isn’t sitting in a regulated deposit account.

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BankID Norway – Evolution and Success

If you follow my 80+ blogs on identity, you should like this success story today.  The Norwegian digital identity scheme, BankID, serves as the #2 best financial identity case study (behind India’s UIDAI) with a penetration rate of 97% across 4.7 million citizens. What could US banks learn? What are their challenges in replicating this model? 

Today I’m giving the background on what BankID is.. In part 2 I’m going to interview my good friend Eric Woodward, former president of Early Warning and the creator of Zelle_ID (see youtube), at least until it was killed as the new CEO asked “what on earth does identity have to do with payments”. OMG

The FIDO Alliance is hosting a Webinar on Bank ID Norway tomorrow at 7am pacific.

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CCCA: 5% chance that 5% of Network EBIT could be affected (in 2+ years)

Update to my 2023 blog on CCCA Complex Politics and Consequences. I’ve spent the last few weeks digging into the latest bill and I see an overstatement of potential impact that most analysts seem to have missed:

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Why eIDAS Will Fail in Banking

Real World Examples

Two weeks ago I penned eIDAS – EU’s Digital Siege. If you didn’t read it, the summary is that EU’s scheme is another attempt to end run BigTech and Visa/Mastercard with a set of “keys” in a digital wallet that are separate from any bank, platform or handset. While technically brilliant, trust requires either a legal mandate, or a commercial construct (and I explain why in the blog). 

Today I’m going to provide a few layman’s examples of why eIDAS will not work in Financial Services (beyond acting as a signal). What is the problem the EU is working to solve? Unfortunately there is not single answer here, just like PSD2/PSD2/SEPA.. “Build it and they will come” (see blog on the EU’s Nobel Prize winner behind IFR – Jean Triole). If the core problem were “How do we prove something cryptographically across borders?”, eIDAS would already be a success.

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V/MA Settlement – Tiered Acceptance

Quick Take on WSJ – V/MA Near Deal w/ Merchants

Merchants have long expressed frustration over card costs, but it’s critical to separate signal from noise. Their issue isn’t with network fees—those average just 5 to 7 basis points and fund the global infrastructure that securely moves trillions. The real pressure point is interchange, often 250 basis points or more for premium rewards cards. That imbalance has shaped years of litigation, and now a potential reset is emerging.

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Pay by Bank Double Whammy

I’ve never been a fan of “Pay by Bank.” It’s a solution in search of a problem, especially when compared to the efficiency of debit cards and the global reach of Visa Direct. Now, two major developments have dealt a significant blow to the already weak business case for this payment method.

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Genius Law – What to Expect?

Yesterday President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law, clearing the path for dollar-backed stablecoins. As I’ve argued before, the future of money is a new model of trust, and this legislation provides the regulatory certainty needed for that trust. 

The GENIUS Act is a landmark piece of legislation. It establishes a dual charter system, enabling both federal and state-regulated stablecoin issuers. The key provisions are precisely what the industry needed: a mandate for 1:1 reserves with high-quality liquid assets like cash and short-term treasuries, a prohibition on reusing those reserves, and the designation of issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This isn’t just about compliance; it’s about building a foundation of trust that can be exported globally.

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The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

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APIs – More Banks to Follow JPM – Pricing Implications

As I stated in my Monday blog, Open Banking is dead in the US. Pay by Bank (and open banking) is effectively dead in the US. This follows JPMorgan’s move to push out its new API pricing structure to data aggregators and other third parties in the first week of July. This development comes as the “new” CFPB seeks to vacate its Section 1033 rule.

The latest is that we can expect most other major banks to roll out their own pricing within the next two weeks. These banks will have different pricing, as there was no coordination among banks. JPM has always been the most forward in protecting consumer data. A new pricing floor for data access has been established. Now that other analysts have weighed in, I can recap the pricing framework. 

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Open Baning is Dead in the US

Last week, I shared the news that JPMorgan has started charging for API access, a move that many see as a death blow to pay-by-bank and open banking in the US. While this might sound dramatic, I believe it’s a necessary reset. The truth is, the current model was never sustainable, and with the CFPB’s recent move to vacate its unlawful 1033 rule, the writing is on the wall. Open banking as we know it is dead in the US.

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