Tag Archives: visa

Agentic Problems and Forces Creating Alignment

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In June I wrote Agentic Apocalypse: How to Stop It. That blog was about intent: agents buying the wrong thing, and platforms grading their own homework. Intent is a real problem. It is not the biggest one. The larger problem is the economic model of agentic, which I first framed in Pricing Agentic: Economic Models for a New Kind of Demand and called the Gordian Knot in Agentic Commerce: I’ve Seen a Lot of Revolutions. This One Feels Different.

Today’s blog takes eight questions in turn. The short version: agentic activity is real and growing, agents still get it wrong too often, and nobody has priced the value they create. Merchants pay for everything in commerce, payments and advertising. Any model, agent or platform ignoring this dynamic will fail. Today’s focus is identifying forces that will create alignment (and they favor the card networks).

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Shopify Reduces Stripe Dependency

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This week Shopify released its Fall ’26 Edition content. The payments news is that Shop Pay now works inside personal agents (Muse, Claude Duet, Grok Bot and Instinct), and it works for brands that are not on Shopify. I found a great tech overview of the payment portion in Shopify Takes Shop Pay Into AI Agents and Off Platform Checkouts (The Defiant, Oct 29, 2026).

I am positive on Shopify as the best agentic enabler for merchants. ShopPay is also the best converting consumer wallet in eCommerce. Edition outlines how ShopPay competes directly with Stripe Link, at the moment Stripe is seeking to expand its consumer role within agent permissioning (see last week’s blog Stripe Link Balance). Stripe and Shopify have been partners for more than a decade. Payments is now a core area of friction.

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Stripe Link Balance

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This week Stripe launched Link balance for AI agents, starting with Instinct (Announced on X by Stripe). Stripe balance is the “agent control dashboard” where Consumers add money, set a per purchase limit, and their agent can buy without asking for approval every time. Read it. On the surface it is a wallet feature. Underneath it is Stripe building a consumer business, because right now Stripe is the only company that can make agentic payments work.

I think this is brilliant, but Issuing banks, merchants, MSPs and other agentic Platforms should take note of Stripe’s very big expansion into consumer direct interaction

What Stripe Launched

The stack has four parts

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Walmart Agent Gateway

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This month Walmart announced Agent Profiles, the Walmart Agent Gateway and a set of terms for AI agents (Walmart, “Making It Possible for Agents to Shop on Behalf of Customers,” Oct 2026). Walmart is supporting customers the way they want to shop: through the agents they choose, with the customer’s controls and Walmart’s rules. In March I described Amazon vs Walmart: Two Very Different Bets on Agentic Commerce. This is Walmart’s bet made concrete, and IMHO it is the most important retail move in agentic commerce this year.

Walmart just became the retail partner of choice for every third party agent, and it kept the payment, the risk, the customer experience and the support.

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Why Banks Are Best Positioned in Intent: Amex Updates ACE to Provide the Model

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Wednesday, American Express published its Intent Intelligence framework, a new core service of the Agentic Commerce Experiences (ACE) Developer Kit. I covered the ACE launch in April in American Express Breaks the Agentic Commerce Deadlock: Why Today Matters. In April, Amex said it would stand behind agent errors. This week it published how it will know what the agent was supposed to do.

I have written five posts on the problem of intent in machine to machine (M2M) transactions:

One principle runs through all of them: intent data must flow to the party taking the risk. Amex has now published a framework built around the issuer, the party that authorizes the payment, answers the phone and absorbs the dispute (and COULD take on liability).

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EMVCo Enters the Intent Wars

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September 2026 – VERY VERY LONG Tech Blog on EMVCo’s new Spec

On September 1, 2026, EMVCo published a draft framework that quietly changes the architecture of agentic commerce. The “EMV Agentic Payments — Framework for Specifications” establishes a neutral, interoperable conceptual foundation for managing consumer intent across the entire payment ecosystem. After more than a year of watching proprietary platforms race to own and orchestrate “everything” in agentic, this is the most significant structural move the industry has seen.

I have written about this problem extensively, from Agentic — Intent and the New Data Games to Carts and Mandates: Decoupling Discovery, Authentication, and Liability to Agentic Data Battle: Intent. The core argument has always been the same: without a structure for managing intent, there will be no trust in agentic transactions. EMVCo just read that memo.

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Instinct: Hottest Agentic Assistant – Payments Advantage?

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Short Blog.

Every few months something breaks out of the demo phase and starts showing up in my feed from people whose judgment I trust. This month it is Instinct, a personal assistant out of San Francisco that the WSJ covered on Friday (“The Latest Viral AI Assistant Rocketing Across Silicon Valley,”). It is worth a look, not because it solves agentic commerce (it does not), but because it is the clearest example yet of where agentic actually gets traction first, and it is not where the payments industry has been looking.

The advantages of edge Use Cases and SMS…. the biggest breakthrough is happening in categories where there is no cart at all.

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ApplePay at Walmart

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Walmart announced yesterday that tap to pay arrives at select Walmart and Sam’s Club locations on August 24, with all US stores and clubs by the end of 2026 and fuel stations by mid 2027. The largest retailer in the country, and the last major holdout on contactless, is turning it on. What a great “going away” present to Jennifer Bailey!.

This is a bigger deal than the press release suggests. Walmart did not resist contactless because it disliked the technology. It resisted because contactless threatened a payment cost structure it spent twenty years building. The news here is not that Walmart added a feature. It is that Walmart concluded the feature no longer costs it anything.

For readers who want the plumbing, I laid out the EMVCo and tokenization dependencies in Understanding ApplePay in PIN Debit (May 2026). This post is the business version.

What I told Apple, repeatedly

Jennifer Bailey at Apple would always ask me the same question: “How can we get Mike [Cook] to accept ApplePay?” My answer never changed, I told her “It was not about Apple.” It was about three things:

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Processors: Understanding Competitive Dynamics

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Warning – Big Blog 12 Pages

The last three weeks gave us a full sweep of processor earnings, and the results were a mixed bag (a phrase that undersells what actually happened). What we saw was not the processor sector moving together with a common tide. It was a sector splitting apart. Adyen raised guidance and jumped 16% in a day. Toast added a record number of locations and raised its full year outlook. On the “bad side of town”, we have Fiserv, which cut guidance, missed consensus, and is now down roughly 23% for the year with a brand new CEO. FIS is down about 36%. The gap between the best processors and the worst has never been this wide, and I do not think most investors have a working framework for why.

That framework is what I want to lay out here.

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Apple – Klarna: Equipment Financing

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Last week, Apple launched Apple Upgrade, a device leasing program for iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac, and iPad in the United States, provided by Klarna. Apple simultaneously retired the iPhone Upgrade Program (financed by Citizens Bank) and iPhone Payments.

This is a very big deal, and it is the culmination of a strategy I first outlined over a decade ago. Equipment financing has always been the prize. Everything else Apple has done in consumer finance (Apple Card, Apple Pay Later, Apple Card Monthly Installments, the savings account) was either a stepping stone, a learning exercise, or a partner accommodation. Apple Upgrade is the main event.

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