Today I’m outlining three near-term scenarios (24 months) for how AP2 signals will work in agentic commerce. Per my blog last week, AP2 is the agentic payment scheme with the most momentum (160+ partners), but in the immediate term (2026–2027), it will operate primarily in a “signals” metaphor for 3 main reasons:
EU’s payment and identity landscape is currently the theater of a high-stakes conflict between regulatory ambition and commercial reality. For the past decade, European legislators have pursued a strategy of “regulatory innovation,” attempting to break the dominance of US-based technology platforms (Apple, Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) through legislative mandates. From the failed efforts of 2015 IFR (regulating excess profits), PSD2, PSD3 and eIDAS 2.0, the pattern is consistent: enforce technical openness in the hope that competitive markets will spontaneously emerge.
This strategy is fundamentally flawed because it conflates technical connectivity with commercial viability. While the EU has successfully legislated open APIs and is now forcing open the phone SE architecture, it has consistently failed to address the “commercial constructs” (governance, liability, and economic incentives) that make these systems work. Without a radical shift acknowledging the necessity of commercial constructs over regulation, the EU’s initiatives will result in compliant but commercially irrelevant infrastructure, that no one will monetize (or invest in), further relegating the EU to a second tier market and leaving US platforms to dominate.
Continue readingFIDO, VC, AP2, Tokenization, Credential Issuance, Biometrics, …etc
The transition to agentic, machine-to-machine (M2M) commerce creates a profound governance gap that existing technology-first standards cannot fill. Today, human-in-the-loop (HIL) transactions, whether at a point-of-sale or in eCommerce, are secured not by technology alone, but by the robust, contract-based governance and risk-allocation models of networks like Visa and Mastercard. As stated previously, V/MA are the identity infrastructure for the internet and identity is the core “shaping force” for all new payment schemes.
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PayPal’s bulls are building a case that Fastlane will drive new growth. My perspective after talking with many of the large US eCom merchants,
A follow-up to my previous post covering Identity, Authentication and Risk
FIDO2, eID, Mobile Wallets, and other initiatives are rapidly advancing to a future of passwordless authentication. “Perfect Authentication” will be highly disruptive to all payment networks, methods and stakeholders. This blog outlines the rough economic impact, winners and losers in a future scenario. Today’s blog is not a dissertation but a “framework” providing puts and takes on disruption due to better authentication.
Short 4 page blog
I’ve written heavily on payments, trust networks and identity. Today I’m providing an example of how UPI, powered by UIDAI’s centralized identity, is creating a new cannon for next-generation payment networks and trust.
I believe that mobile platforms are well placed to learn their lessons in India and create a new phone based network agnostic identity platform that will drive a significant change to payments, the internet and how we manage trust with counterparties.
Short Blog – Follow Up to Last Week’s FedNow Update
I’ve got 4 blogs in queue with Part 5 – Future of Retail Banking coming next week. I’ve been asked to expand beyond my pro-network bent into areas like FedNow, PayPal, Stripe and Asia… etc and I will oblige. For today, drilling down on FedNow’s opportunity and the key barriers for “break out growth” (expanding on the last 2 bullets within 22 Feb FedNow blog). Feedback appreciated.
My last blog on topic was less than a month ago Real Time Payments in US – Strategic Shifts (Jan 2023), and also FedNow (Dec 2021). Will thus keep this blog to summary bullets.
Most of you techie’s out there had a physics class at some point and can recall the Observer Effect in Quantum Physics: the act of observation can change the measured results. Observation in payments has become the second largest driver of margin and has enabled many new specialists…. so I thought I’d outline some broad thoughts and tell a few stories.
Why is observation important? Payment behavior is truth marked data of what a consumer actually did (offline). While I may search for Ferrari’s, or visit dealership (mobile location) what I actually bought is much more important in predicting behavior and evaluating risk. Purchase data is the most valuable data for that reason (and issuing banks had a lock on it.. Until about 5 yrs ago). The lock has been broken and payment data has become the “missing link” to unite heterogeneous data sets.