Quick Take on WSJ – V/MA Near Deal w/ Merchants
Merchants have long expressed frustration over card costs, but it’s critical to separate signal from noise. Their issue isn’t with network fees—those average just 5 to 7 basis points and fund the global infrastructure that securely moves trillions. The real pressure point is interchange, often 250 basis points or more for premium rewards cards. That imbalance has shaped years of litigation, and now a potential reset is emerging.
FIDO, VC, AP2, Tokenization, Credential Issuance, Biometrics, …etc
The transition to agentic, machine-to-machine (M2M) commerce creates a profound governance gap that existing technology-first standards cannot fill. Today, human-in-the-loop (HIL) transactions, whether at a point-of-sale or in eCommerce, are secured not by technology alone, but by the robust, contract-based governance and risk-allocation models of networks like Visa and Mastercard. As stated previously, V/MA are the identity infrastructure for the internet and identity is the core “shaping force” for all new payment schemes.
Continue readingIt was truly fantastic catching up with so many of you in person at Money 2020! It’s clear that payments, AI, and digital assets are accelerating at an unbelievable pace. If you didn’t manage to make it, or if you were too busy grabbing coffee to focus on the news flow, here are my top takeaways from the floor. I hope to see some of you in Miami at Simon’s Fintech Nerdcon!
The core theme I kept hearing is that the future of commerce is moving rapidly toward machine-to-machine (M2M) interactions. As this happens, the role of V/MA networks (governance, economics, trust, identity, and authorization) becomes even more crucial. The technology is the easy part; the governance is the real competitive moat.
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I’ve been writing about governance, trust, transaction costs and payments for a long time. In my view THE KEY to understanding how stablecoins, agentic, DeFi, Open Banking, tokenization and other payment innovations is governance. I seem to be the only one writing about it, so I don’t see a reason to stop now. Governance is the BIGGEST competitive moat for Visa and Mastercard, and its also the heart of their biggest break out growth opportunity. If you thought AI was transformational, radically reducing transaction costs (TCE per Nobel work of Ronald Coase) will dwarf it. In fact the monetization of AI is a Gordian knot of governance issues (see Agentic Commerce and Governance).
Today I’m expanding on “value exchange” governance with 5 core themes.
Yesterday Google rolled out AP2. Key summary bullets
I’ve never been a fan of “Pay by Bank.” It’s a solution in search of a problem, especially when compared to the efficiency of debit cards and the global reach of Visa Direct. Now, two major developments have dealt a significant blow to the already weak business case for this payment method.
Continue readingDrivers, Current Efforts and My View of the Big Picture Opportunity. Do Stablecoins represent the greatest network expansion opportunity of the next decade? I think so…
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Everyone knows I’m a big fan of Visa and Mastercard. Why not? They are the most successful commercial networks in the history of man. The power of banking is unlocked within the networks that connect them (see Power of Bank Networks) and V/MA are the largest “connectors” in the world (banks, consumers, businesses). While many pundits see stablecoin as a threat to cards, I don’t see it that way at all. In fact, I think Stablecoin-based innovation will help drive a new phase of growth in the networks (as well as dollarization).
Today’s blog provides background on the current network efforts in stablecoin settlement. I’m also attempting to outline the “why” and business case for card networks expanding their role, the number of nodes on the network, and the political dynamics at work behind the scenes. Why read this? In my view this subject is the core of a bull case for network expansion. IMHO Investors should not look at stablecoins as a threat to V/MA, but rather as another network where V/MA can deliver value and grow the network at a massive scale.. A once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Yesterday President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law, clearing the path for dollar-backed stablecoins. As I’ve argued before, the future of money is a new model of trust, and this legislation provides the regulatory certainty needed for that trust.
The GENIUS Act is a landmark piece of legislation. It establishes a dual charter system, enabling both federal and state-regulated stablecoin issuers. The key provisions are precisely what the industry needed: a mandate for 1:1 reserves with high-quality liquid assets like cash and short-term treasuries, a prohibition on reusing those reserves, and the designation of issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This isn’t just about compliance; it’s about building a foundation of trust that can be exported globally.
Continue readingI’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.
Continue readingAs a Banker, Founder and Payment Historian who has spent too long watching icebergs melt, I’ve seen many technologies promise to upend the banking industry. Most have been evolutionary, not revolutionary. But the advent of digital dollars, particularly consumer-facing stablecoins, are unique. Payments are the core of retail banking and profitability. Payments are a networked business, not just in card but in every consortium and association. As I outlined in The Power of Bank Networks, these networks are the engines that drive economies and how banks connect to the environment. For my colleagues in banking and payments, understanding how (or if) stablecoins impact payments is very important.