Blog – AP2 Operations: Near Term – Long Term

© Starpoint LLP, 2025. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner. Also, see our Legal/Disclaimer(this is a highly opinionated and partially informed blog). Enterprise readers, please consider Enterprise Subscription (not required for Starpoint Clients).

As most of you know, AP2 is an open spec with over 160 partners. Today I’ll discuss 2 scenarios for how AP2 will integrate with card payments (with consumer Authorization). While most understand the technology behind these scenarios, the politics and strategies may provide the best insights. Identity needs a network, but network effects create stasis or equilibrium as existing participants make investments based upon current operation. Cards are the incumbent, and networks have a great plan, the biggest hurdle isn’t tech, it’s getting everyone in the boat with the right controls, governance and economics.

  1. Scenario 1 – Near Term – AP2 credentials are one of many “signals” that work with merchant owned fraud. Signals will be consumed by Merchants and MSPs as they maintain responsibility for fraud risk, and by networks/Issuers for authorization (and tokenization). 3DS has been around since 2008, I wouldn’t expect us to move at lightspeed to scenario 2 until consumers (and new fraud vectors) drive us there.
  2. Scenario 2 – Long Term – Bank issued credentials inside the device bound secure Storage (Apple Enclave, Goog Titan M2, Samsung Knox) with Issuers (thru networks operating) as the governing authority. This will involve a liability shift, a new role for mobile in managing credentials, and a new governance regime. 
  3. Scenario 3 (not covered) is walled gardens that control all standards, operations and own the risk (ex Amazon).

A nice chart covering these scenarios is in this link, courtesy of Notebook LM and Julie Fergeson.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Why eIDAS Will Fail in Banking

Real World Examples

Two weeks ago I penned eIDAS – EU’s Digital Siege. If you didn’t read it, the summary is that EU’s scheme is another attempt to end run BigTech and Visa/Mastercard with a set of “keys” in a digital wallet that are separate from any bank, platform or handset. While technically brilliant, trust requires either a legal mandate, or a commercial construct (and I explain why in the blog). 

Today I’m going to provide a few layman’s examples of why eIDAS will not work in Financial Services (beyond acting as a signal). What is the problem the EU is working to solve? Unfortunately there is not single answer here, just like PSD2/PSD2/SEPA.. “Build it and they will come” (see blog on the EU’s Nobel Prize winner behind IFR – Jean Triole). If the core problem were “How do we prove something cryptographically across borders?”, eIDAS would already be a success.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Europe’s Siege – Digital Sovereignty Strategy

Summary

EU’s  payment and identity landscape is currently the theater of a high-stakes conflict between regulatory ambition and commercial reality. For the past decade, European legislators have pursued a strategy of “regulatory innovation,” attempting to break the dominance of US-based technology platforms (Apple, Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) through legislative mandates. From the failed efforts of 2015 IFR (regulating excess profits), PSD2, PSD3 and eIDAS 2.0, the pattern is consistent: enforce technical openness in the hope that competitive markets will spontaneously emerge.

This strategy is fundamentally flawed because it conflates technical connectivity with commercial viability. While the EU has successfully legislated open APIs and is now forcing open the phone SE architecture, it has consistently failed to address the “commercial constructs” (governance, liability, and economic incentives) that make these systems work. Without a radical shift acknowledging the necessity of commercial constructs over regulation, the EU’s initiatives will result in compliant but commercially irrelevant infrastructure, that no one will monetize (or invest in), further relegating the EU to a second tier market and leaving US platforms to dominate.

Continue reading

The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

Continue reading

Message to Bank CEOs as Stablecoins Take Hold

Bank Payment Strategy in the World of Agentic and Stablecoin

Stripe’s recent moves are massive and will solve stablecoin acceptance (globally). When (and if) a consumer champion goes all in on stablecoin we will see change in payment innovation akin to the “age of enlightenment”.  What are banks to do?


Cards are the most profitable banking product in the history of retail banking, and the power of banking is unlocked within the networks that link them (blog). While the power of banking is unlocked in networks, network innovation is like herding cats as each stakeholder works to protect their existing investments and competitive advantage (see Network Innovation).

Continue reading

Commercial Models for AI Agents

Short Blog.. but core to a new series that will attempt to address this strategic question

I find it hard to believe that anyone could keep up with the daily technical updates in AI, the pace of innovation is truly astounding. Given the completion of my recent agentic commerce survey, I thought I’d provide a few of my thoughts on the uncertainties surrounding the economics associated with AI agentic architectures.  While the technology is fascinating, the market operation of AI and Agents is nascent. How is value measured? How will it be monetized?  Who has the pricing power?  How will this impact existing markets, systems and participants? My perspective here is based upon my experience in networked businesses, but even more so in measurement (as CEO/Founder of Commerce Signals).

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Scenario – Agentic Wallets and Federated Data

Keeping up with the latest in agentic commerce, artificial intelligence (AI), payments, and data privacy is an ongoing challenge. Data and LLM are the key ingredients fueling the rapid advancements in AI and machine learning innovations. As a privacy advocate, I remain deeply concerned about the centralization of data. Once AI models are built to understand “you,” they no longer need continuous access to your data—just ongoing observation (see blogs on Data Centralization and Payments and the Observer Effect).

Do I think wallets will become “Agents”? No, but they will be the most important interface to all Agents, as they broker identity, authentication, authorization, permissions and highly secure data in the handset. My view is that Wallets enable many agents. This view of the the world is called the Agentic Mesh where specialized agents work together to achieve a result.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Wallets and Networks: The Backbone of Digital Transactions

Stimulating community discussion is the #1 reason I write this blog. The intersection of payments, banking, and technology is evolving rapidly, and I’m fortunate to engage with great minds like Dave Birch and new friends like Simon Taylor. Dave’s recent post on crypto predictions got me thinking about a topic I keep coming back to—wallets and networks.

As a former banker, I’m naturally more skeptical about FinTechs disrupting the core of banking. Consumer behavior is incredibly difficult to change, and financial services are among the most competitive industries in the world. If there’s one concept where my perspective diverges from many thought leaders, it’s the power of bank networks (read more). These networks are the foundation of financial transactions, and they continue to define the way money moves.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us