Scenario – Agentic Wallets and Federated Data

Keeping up with the latest in agentic commerce, artificial intelligence (AI), payments, and data privacy is an ongoing challenge. Data and LLM are the key ingredients fueling the rapid advancements in AI and machine learning innovations. As a privacy advocate, I remain deeply concerned about the centralization of data. Once AI models are built to understand “you,” they no longer need continuous access to your data—just ongoing observation (see blogs on Data Centralization and Payments and the Observer Effect).

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Wallets and Privacy

I’m on a brief vacation celebrating my 28th anniversary and deep in thought (pic below). What am I thinking of here on the beach? Wallets, Networks, Trust and Privacy.

The Case for Separating Wallets from Identity Providers

As digital identities continue to evolve, one of the most important debates centers around who controls and operates the wallet that holds these identities. Specifically, should wallets be separated from authorities that legally issue “identity”—commonly known as Identity Providers (IdPs)? This issue is particularly relevant in countries like India and Europe, where digital identity initiatives have made significant strides, yet their approaches raise important questions about privacy and control.

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Wallets and Networks: The Backbone of Digital Transactions

Stimulating community discussion is the #1 reason I write this blog. The intersection of payments, banking, and technology is evolving rapidly, and I’m fortunate to engage with great minds like Dave Birch and new friends like Simon Taylor. Dave’s recent post on crypto predictions got me thinking about a topic I keep coming back to—wallets and networks.

As a former banker, I’m naturally more skeptical about FinTechs disrupting the core of banking. Consumer behavior is incredibly difficult to change, and financial services are among the most competitive industries in the world. If there’s one concept where my perspective diverges from many thought leaders, it’s the power of bank networks (read more). These networks are the foundation of financial transactions, and they continue to define the way money moves.

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Winning in Network of Networks: Collaboration

My largest holdings are card networks, and I’m very keen on their continued growth and sustainability of competitive advantage. My confidence is based on five broad themes. 

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Bank Transformation – Actions for Banks to Succeed in the Storm of Disruption

A Framework for Collaboration – Taking Part in Consumer Journeys

16 Page Blog – 3 Page Exec Summary 

Part 2 of Future of Retail Banking (2023). This blog has been sitting at 60% for 2 months now. Sorry for the delay.  A bull case for V/MA and service expansion.

A storm is brewing that will dwarf the impact the internet (V1/V2) had on established business models. There are multiple transformations occurring simultaneously: AI/ML, Web3, Digital ID, DLT, open mandates, FinTech, Wallets, ….etc. (see Web3 and Small Wins). While large orchestrators and big tech dominate today due to their virtuous cycles, new forces push for the “break up” of Big Tech and centralized data stores to make the internet more democratic and more privacy friendly.

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Paze Update – 4 Elements of the PAZE Wallet (70% confidence)

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Over the last 5 yrs I’ve written 9 blogs on PAZE/SRC, and over 20 on the TCH’s 13 yr effort to own mobile payments. Today is my update and latest best guess at what they are building. This is a 70% confidence guess based upon my discussions with Merchants, Early Warning alumni, former bank execs, and previous releases (ex Authentify). 

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Separating Payment and Identity

15 pages (summary is 4)

Follow blog from Payment Authorization – Under the Hood (ie working on a car engine), Trust Assertions – Identity will Define the Future of Payments and Role of Identity and Trust in eCommerce.

Today’s blog is one of my personal favorites, not only because of the topic but because of the leading experts in retail, identity, networks, and payments that collaborated and provided editing (thanks all). While I’m no longer the tech expert, I do have a unique view on the “inside baseball” incentives and realities of what is actually happening (behind the rules). Payments are not like a brand-new Ferrari operating to spec, they are a very messy business with complex rules, worn-out systems, unresponsive drivers and a broke racing team with no sponsor. This is a get-your-hands-dirty blog. Note that I’m open to feedback in case I’ve missed something

Outline

  1. Summary
  2. Survey of global identity initiatives
  3. How identity works in eCommerce today
  4. Technical example
  5. How identity improves CX and eCommerce payment flows
  6. Four future scenarios of identity and payments
  7. What should investors track

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Payments and Identity – UPI continues to lead the world

Short 4 page blog

I’ve written heavily on payments, trust networks and identity. Today I’m providing an example of how UPI, powered by UIDAI’s centralized identity,  is creating a new cannon for next-generation payment networks and trust.

I believe that mobile platforms are well placed to learn their lessons in India and create a new phone based network agnostic identity platform that will drive a significant change to payments, the internet and how we manage trust with counterparties.

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Wallets, APIs and Trust

6 Page Blog

Top of mind today are Wallets, Identity and Application Program Interfaces (APIs). APIs are the core concept behind many new business models investors must decipher:

  • Software as a Service (SaaS)
  • Payments as a Service (PaaS)
  • Banking as a Service (PaaS)
  • Open Banking – PISP, AISP, ..etc
  • Account Aggregation – FDX, Plaid, Akoya, … etc
  • Payment Service Provider (PSP) – Stripe, Adyen, PYPL/Braintree, … etc

Previously, I’ve covered this topic in Open Banking and Open Payments and Trust Networks (2020)  Part 3 – Internet 2.5 (2022), Modularity and Trust (2022) and Evolution of V/MA – Moving Beyond Cards (2021). Summary points from these previous blogs:

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Random Thoughts – Modularity and Trust

Trust in a transaction. In another one of my favorite books  (Design Rules: modularity) there exists the concept of trust between physical components of an integrated system. This book stands in contrast to Nobel Economists’ work in defining the “Firm” and organizational boundaries in Transaction Cost Economics (TCE). But the technical theory of modularity is amazingly consistent with the concepts of “boundaries” in TCE. In modularity, there are 4 core rules for separating technical components:

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