PayPal Innovation Opportunity – “All In” on the Consumer

I’m usually just a cynic. Today, I’m constructive with specific suggestions for PayPal’s new executive team. Note that about 80% of your large institutional investors will read this.. 

Exec Summary

  • Wallets are a core battlefield for Issuers, BigTech, marketplaces, and governments.
  • PayPal’s previous “super app” strategy failed because there was no clear consumer value proposition.
  • The most significant consumer value proposition to be unlocked is the unbundling of financial services, with the wallet providing the common UI to manage the complexity. In this future state, a “super wallet” would enable bank competition for every account and every transaction.
  • PayPal is well positioned to execute on a super wallet, but it must go ALL IN on a consumer-focused value proposition without regard for issuer relationships. 
  • For example, Curve is the best-in-class Wallet providing aggregation, transaction, loyalty and analytics across all account types, networks, POS, eCom, P2P and banking services. 

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PayPal’s Shock to the world

Short Blog. I’m sorry for the delay on part 2 of the Govenance models for identity. I’m on my 14th update.. Will get out soon.

In the news today. PayPal’s Alex Chriss said ““There hasn’t been a lot to celebrate over the last few years. Innovation has been slow,” Chriss responded. “I love being an underdog. I will take all of that feedback and we’ll shock the world.”.

PR Today

https://investor.pypl.com/news-and-events/news-details/2024/PayPal-and-Venmo-Unveil-Six-New-Innovations-to-Revolutionize-Commerce/default.aspx

Shock is the right word.. Just not what Alex was hoping for as the stock dove 5% immediately after the announcement. IMHO the market reaction is spot on. I’ve spent 15 yrs in retailer data, offers, wallets and etc, founding Commerce Signals (now part of Transunion).

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Visa Launches Visa+ with PayPal as Anchor

Short Blog

https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.releaseId.19621.html

Today Visa announced a major expansion of Visa Direct called Visa +, with PayPal as the anchor launch partner. “help individuals move money quickly and securely between different person-to-person (P2P) digital payment apps” without requiring the recipient to have a Visa card.

Visa+ expands Visa’s role as the meta-directory of payments connecting consumers, wallets and accounts with a master “payname”. If I were to write the marketing one-liner for Visa+ it would be “pay people in the way they want to be paid”

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MRC Recap – Looking up – A Retailers Perspective On Payments

I’m glad I made the decision to attend my very first Merchant Risk Council event this week. For those that don’t know, MRC Vegas is the second largest payment event in the US (after M2020) but with a VERY different focus. MRC is attended by the “hands on” payment leaders from all the top merchants and the vendors that serve them: Stripe, Adyen, PayPal, V, MA, risk, fraud,  …. Etc. Whereas M2020 is attended by FinTech, Crypto, Venture, Institutional investor, and strategy audiences, MRC is much more focused on making payments work

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Amazon Takes Venmo…

Big news from PayPal’s earnings yesterday was Amazon taking Venmo. I wanted to summarize the 15 tweets on the topic and provide a little more background into the dynamics. 

Amazon is an amazing company from a people perspective, perhaps the best TEAM I’ve had as a customer. They always proceed within a plan and purpose. So why Venmo?  As I related 2 weeks ago, Amazon is working to reduce the costs of payments. They have managed fraud down to 3bps.. So why can’t their processing costs look a lot more like Walmart? They have been successful in achieving this in EU (Sepa DD) and India (see blog), but the US remains (by far) the highest cost geography. 

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Short Blog – PayPal and Pinterest

PayPal and Pinterest – Super Distraction?

What’s behind this deal?

PayPal needs

    1. Increase users and platform engagement (MAU)
    2. Grow the merchant value proposition
    3. Get into the START of a consumer shopping experience
    4. Enable a new mobile first shopping experience – focused on small merchants – from beginning to end (like Alipay)

 Pinterest

    1. “Inspiration to Action” – They are missing the action beyond a ad click.
    2. Stalled user growth
    3. 50%+ Revenue growth with consistent operating loss.
    4. 454M Users with ARPU of $5.08/User vs PayPal’s $21/User
    5. Ad Growth to Action. Advertising business with solid advertising relationships with CPGs and large retailers. However you don’t click to buy from a CPG. 
    6. Needs platform to complete consumer journey.

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    PayPal’s New Mobile Bank

    Quick thoughts on today’s announcement

    1. Techcrunch
    2. PayPal Blog

    This is a solid product.. Not a “super app” but perhaps the best mobile first bank in the US (and beyond). What is NEW? 

      • Mobile UI to integrate all those heterogeneous apps (and acquisitions)
      • High yield savings account (0.4% APR) powered by synchrony
      • Integration of Honey offers/rebates/loyalty programs
      • Better Direct Deposit/Bill Pay integration (ex faster clearing/availability of direct deposits)

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    PayPal – ?Super App?

    PayPal has been my #1 holding for last 5 yrs, and it has been on a fantastic ride… especially so over the last 18 months! (see MVP – Continued Domination for more). 

    Paypal announced 2Q21 earnings 2 weeks ago (7.28). TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with. Earnings? Not so much as margin erosion has hit the business. One core driver of margin has investors particularly concerned: “Take rate” (net merchant revenue less cost to clear payments) fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. 

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    Walmart – Banking and FinTech

    As always pardon the typos

    It seems like only yesterday that 30 members of Congress wrote the acting chairman of the FDIC to stop Walmart Bank.

    “Wal-Mart’s plan, to have its bank process hundreds of billions in transactions for its own stores, could threaten the stability of the nation’s payments system,”

    30 Members of US Congress, March 2006

    Of course, we all know that Walmart pursued a different course to deliver services. Partnerships (MGI, Moneygram, Paypal, …) and banking in a box (literally an isle with prepaid cards). Most analysts discount or “write off” Walmart’s achievements in financial services.  Given Walmart doesn’t break out financial performance of Money Center, analysts are left with the tea leaves of MGI and GDOT reports. There is little doubt that comparing Money Center financial metrics to tier 1 banks would leave most unimpressed. However, Walmart has created a portfolio of banking services that supports their overall retail strategy and creates overwhelming loyalty amongst their core customer base.  

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