Card VAS Tailwind – Agentic

© Starpoint LLP, 2025. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner. Also, see our Legal/Disclaimer (this is a highly opinionated and partially informed blog). Enterprise readers, please consider Enterprise Subscription (not required for Starpoint Clients). 

I’ll be honest, I’ve been watching the “agentic commerce” hype train with a healthy dose of skepticism. The idea that AI agents will soon handle all our shopping feels like a solution in search of a problem. Yet, looking at the data, I have to admit something massive is happening under the surface. We are in the midst of a fundamental change in how the internet works, and while the “Agentic Era” is still 3+ years away, the tremors are already breaking the internet’s business model.

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Walmart and Open AI

Quick Take

© Starpoint LLP, 2024. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner. Also, see our Legal/Disclaimer (this is a highly opinionated and partially informed blog). Enterprise readers, please consider Enterprise Subscription (not required for Starpoint Clients). 

This week: Walmart announced a partnership with OpenAI to integrate shopping directly into ChatGPT, complete with an Instant Checkout feature. The market reacted instantly, driving WMT stock up over 5%. If you weren’t already paying attention to agentic commerce, you should be now.

For experts in payments and eCommerce, this deal is the ultimate realization of Walmart’s Everyday Low Prices (ELP) strategy. ELP is their cornerstone, and when you lead on price, you can afford to be channel agnostic. Walmart is signaling that they will be everywhere the customer is buying.

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PayPal Advertising?

Yesterday PayPal announced PayPal Ads Manager

“PayPal Ads Manager gives tens of millions of small businesses access to high-margin ad revenue while creating valuable new inventory for advertisers of all sizes.”

“Retail media networks have become a multi-billion-dollar industry that generates high-margin revenue by enabling businesses to sell advertising on small business websites and apps”

As the Founder/CEO of Commerce Signals we brought card data to market primarily for measurement (now part of TU). It gave us a view of how advertisers performed and what data was valuable. I went into great detail on the challenges of  JPM’s Retail Media network in my June 2025 blog  Understanding How Payments Data Plays in Advertising (2025), and more generically in my 2021 blog Data Games

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Stripe Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)

The best, and perhaps only, operable protocol that can solve agent payment issues today.

Stripe’s Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), co-developed with OpenAI, is a functional leap forward in enabling agentic commerce. While its open-source nature invites broad adoption, Stripe is uniquely able to “make it work” by leveraging its existing fraud-fighting assets. Another less reported benefit of ACP is payment rail agnostic operation. ACP will work for paybybank, PIX, EFTPOS, Swish, Bizum or anything else. Anywhere that Stipe’s device graph and Radar (Risk/Fraud) are effective. Stripe’s secure payment token plus risk signals allow merchants to operate the way they do today (no operational change).

ACP may only have a limited 2-3 yr runway as more advanced authentication methods become mainstream, and network rule sets/services advance to serve all agent providers (leveling the playing field).

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Google Rolls out Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2) – Techie Blog

Yesterday Google rolled out AP2. Key summary bullets

  • I applaud Google’s efforts to advance AP with first focus on enabling a “Trusted Agent Economy”. AP2 (V0.1) on establishing the core architecture and enabling the most common use cases (cards, data payloads to support VC, human in the loop scenarios with step up). 
  • Long list of supporting participants including MA and Amex. However, no other AI platforms, nor Visa, Paze, or US Banks. 
  • Good detailed documentation on initial flows (see Github)
  • Introduction of Verifiable Credentials (VC) as the core of AP2 with a recognition that merchants (who own risk) may also need transaction fraud data. 
  • A twist on the identity provider of VC to become the [Payment] Credential provider, with initial focus on cards, Google has stated goal of designing AP2 to support stablecoin, push payment and other payment types. This “sets up” Visa and Mastercard to retain their roles as the authentication infrastructure for the internet, while also allowing for other networks (India UPI) and seperate identity providers (eID) to operate with the role.
  • My read is that Google has given up hope of making AP2 work in US, as Visa’s intelligent commerce framework is further along.  How tokens, Issuers and networks work within AP2 is not a big technical effort, but there are several things missing from AP2, for example the rule sets (3DS, DAF, TAF, …etc) which the credential (and transaction) operates under. 
  • The framework is solid, authentication will be a huge part of the challenge here.  Payment networks must control how authentication is performed by with their credentials. Visa and mastercard are the authentication infrastructure for the internet for a reason. Its not the technology, it is the governance, standards, enforcement and the operating rules which govern WHO OWNS THE RISK when authentication has broken. See Identity Models and Governance https://blog.starpointllp.com/?p=6470 
  • Of course stablecoins could work here, but guess who owns the risk when something happened that wasn’t authorized? There is no bank to complain to.. Your automated agent made a mistake and you (the consumer) have the loss.
  • AP2 will be successful as the communication protocol for between agents and stakeholders, but it requires credential providers with strong governance and operating rule constructs. Visa, MA, Amex, UPI/UIDAS and PayPal all fit that bill.  The challenge with this dependency is that the control points for progress are complex, as any change in a network requires buy in from existing stakeholders.
  • Expect Google to demonstrate the technical efficacy of AP2 with Stablecoin or Crypto first, and then look to adapt AP2 needs to credential providers
  • While the EU is the best market for Google to begin with, regulators are not keen on doing anything to help US big tech. My recommendation to Google is work on a US focus plan B that will involve US credential providers (ie Visa and Visa banks). AP2 can be the protocol, but most of it will need to operate within the authentication and rules of the credential provider.

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Agentic Commerce – I’ve Seen a Lot of “Revolutions”. This One Feels Different.

Hello from Alberta and the Columbia Ice Fields. During the drive I’ve put together a Case study in how Shopify is Building a key piece of the new model. Also drill down on monetization as the Gordian Knot that will determine how Agentic Commerce Operates.

I’ve been in the payments and retail space for almost three decades. I was there for the dot-com boom and bust, the shift from plastic to mobile wallets, the birth of amazon and Google, and the rise of the platform economy. I’ve seen enough hype cycles to fill a library. Each time, we were promised a revolution that would change everything. And while some of those shifts were significant, they were ultimately evolutionary. eCommerce added a channel, mobile created more shopping interactions and more points to influence,  but were mostly the same commercially. 

This time, I have to admit, it feels different. The rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence aren’t just creating a new channel; they are actively dismantling the foundational economic bargain of the internet. The core paradigms I’ve operated on for my entire career is being invalidated in real-time.

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The Next GREAT RETAILER CONSOLIDATION? 

Can retailers resist AI Platforms? I don’t think so..

Agentic Commerce is in a state of flux. While the AI platforms provide a glimpse of what conversational commerce will look like, most aren’t able to complete a transaction. 

Shopify and OpenAi are leading the way in creating a best in class integration that will change all that (see overview). For the millions of merchants on Shopify’s platform, participating in the conversational AI revolution will become as simple as flicking a switch. Shopify is handling the backend (real-time product data/inventory, payment and checkout). I love Shopify; their execution is consistently flawless, and I have no doubt this will be another seamless, successful product launch.

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Message to Bank CEOs as Stablecoins Take Hold

Bank Payment Strategy in the World of Agentic and Stablecoin

Stripe’s recent moves are massive and will solve stablecoin acceptance (globally). When (and if) a consumer champion goes all in on stablecoin we will see change in payment innovation akin to the “age of enlightenment”.  What are banks to do?


Cards are the most profitable banking product in the history of retail banking, and the power of banking is unlocked within the networks that link them (blog). While the power of banking is unlocked in networks, network innovation is like herding cats as each stakeholder works to protect their existing investments and competitive advantage (see Network Innovation).

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Understanding Payments Data – How it Plays Today and the Near Term Future

© Starpoint LLP, 2024. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner. Also, see our Legal/Disclaimer (this is a highly opinionated and partially informed blog). Enterprise readers, please consider Enterprise Subscription (not required for Starpoint Clients). 

I thought it was time for a payment data update. Given Paypal’s Feb 2025 investor day, JPM’s “Retail Media Network” now re-labled Media Solutions and JPM’s lawsuit against Transunion/Argus. My perspective is formed from my 8 yrs as CEO/Founder of Commerce Signals. I’ll touch on signals, intent and agentic at the end. 

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Agentic’s Real Economic Opportunity: Edge Use Cases

This blog is a monster 25 pages. Hence the executive summary

Transformation seldom starts at the core of an existing market or business, but rather starts in edge use cases of unmet needs and price performance (ie, Innovators Dilemma). Edge UCs may be the biggest economic opportunity for Agentic, organizing hyperlocal, DTC and the food chain to create a new kind of market. If these edge UCs can be addressed in the US, it also greatly expands the global market opportunity as small regional needs resemble the edge.

The consumer benefit of this approach is an awareness of the very different “purpose” of agentic platforms vs Amazon or Walmart.  Imagine identifying which businesses and service providers could address your needs locally. 

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