The Power to Price

The best lever of economic margin for investors to track is power to price. In classical economics, pricing power is not merely a reflection of market share, but rather the capacity of an economic actor to minimize transaction costs while maintaining strategic control over data, risk, and user experience. Historically, eCommerce has operated under a macroeconomic paradigm where merchants absorb the operational and financial frictions of the conversion funnel, while payment networks and processors leverage their scale to price security, identity, VAS and settlement infrastructure.

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DPCs Great Idea with a Long Way To Go

© Starpoint LLP, 2026. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner. Also, see our Legal/Disclaimer (this is a highly opinionated and partially informed blog). Enterprise readers, please consider an Enterprise Subscription (not required for Starpoint Clients). 

Executive Summary

I’m fortunate to chat with a diversity of large payment network stakeholders. As most of you know, I view the challenge in payments more from a political/incentive viewpoint than a technical one. The alphabet soup of new standards is hard to keep up with, but be assured that each one has a proponent (who benefits) and a group of resistors. Innovation in a network is hard, as existing stakeholders have built assets and competitive positions based upon how things work today. Today’s blog covers DPCs. DPCs may not be the biggest threat, but they are the newest. I’m not going to attempt a deep tech dive into DPCs; my effort is focused more on the challenges faced by any new payment innovation to gain traction and scale. Network effects are hard to beat!

Why read this blog? My readers know I view identity and authentication as part of the core “bundle” of payments, and Visa/MA are the de facto identity infrastructure of the internet because they unlock the power of banks (ie KYC) within a commercial framework with active governance. Today we are breaking down the latest “threat”: Digital Payment Credentials (DPCs) within Agentic(ie Gemini, GPay). The quick summary is that DPCs are an amazing technical innovation without a commercial framework or active governance, and thus will be challenged to operate separately from established networks (just like Stablecoins). This 23 page monster blog is a breakdown of the politics and the tech.

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EMVCo and DPCs

This should be a 20 page blog… but I don’t have time this week. Big picture thoughts

The April 28, 2026 announcement of Google’s donation of the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) to the FIDO Alliance signals Google’s desire to move payments from the legacy Device Primary Account Number (DPAN) model to the Digital Payment Credential (DPC) mandate framework. For identity and payment experts, this shift represents more than a technical update; it is an effort to commoditize the proprietary trust moats built by card networks and Apple through a standardized, platform-agnostic infrastructure.

© Starpoint LLP, 2026. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner. Also, see our Legal/Disclaimer(this is a highly opinionated and partially informed blog). Enterprise readers, please consider an Enterprise Subscription(not required for Starpoint Clients).

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AP2 Donation to FIDO 

Yesterday Google donated AP2 to the FIDO Alliance , let me share my thoughts on what this means.  

  1. Effort to drive cross-industry standardization and extend Google’s established success within the FIDO ecosystem (log in with Google) while addressing the structural limitations of FIDO.
  2. A “tipping point” transition from “Identity as a Service” to “Identity as an Infrastructure,” where the mobile handset functions as the primary root of trust for autonomous commerce. Google is telling FIDO that they must incorporate elements of W3C VCs to have a future.
  3. Google’s first big public move toward device bound credentials (Titan M2, Anroid Credential Manager, Android Ready Alliance, …etc).

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Federated Models Need Measurement

A follow on blog to my Intent data post yesterday. Where intent is needed for authorization, measurement is needed by every “specialist” participating in an agentic interaction. As background I was founder/CEO of Commerce Signals, focused on measurement and card transaction data. Measurement is a powerful business. In fact, I would say Google started out as a measurement company with the PageRank algorithm. By keeping track of what users clicked on which link for which search word, they created the directory of the internet. Let’s dig a little deeper into why measurement is key in agentic, and for all federated models.

Google is not building a monolithic “central brain” to disintermediate the ecosystem. Instead, as discussed in my UCP Blog (also see Ask Macy’s Case Study), they are fostering a world of specialist collaborative models that interact across three specific technical layers:

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Agentic – Intent and the New “Data Games’

While the industry recognizes that agentic commerce is reshaping payments, the more immediate technical friction lies in how it re-engineers data sharing. We are moving past the “top-of-funnel” coordination of inventory and pricing seen in protocols like UCP/MCP, entering the more contentious territory of AP2/ACP to coordinate trust and payment.

The Collaboration Paradox

As I’ve noted in Strategic Innovation Era, we are seeing a “Retailer First” surge. Successes like Walmart’s Sparky and Amazon’s Rufus prove that retailers are intent on controlling their own data and checkout environments.

However, external collaboration is mandatory for scale. I remain a proponent of Google’s approach: rather than a monolithic LLM, they are building a world of specialist model partnerships. But collaboration requires data exchange—the primary point of friction in this stage of strategic innovation.

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Target’s Consumer Terms “Your Bot Is Your Responsibility”

Target updated its consumer terms on March 22, 2026 to clarify that AI agent-initiated purchases are the customer’s responsibility.

  • The timing is not coincidental — it’s a signal that Google’s “Buy For Me” launch is coming,
  • The new language is blunt: if a customer authorizes an AI shopping agent to act on their behalf, those transactions are “considered transactions authorized by you.”
  • Added a disclaimer that it “does not guarantee that third-party AI tools will act exactly as you intend in all circumstances.”
  • Target wants to be very clear about who owns the risk: Your bot is your responsibility.

Google “Buy For Me” Is the Trigger

In May 2025, Google announced its agentic checkout feature: track a price, set your threshold, and when it drops, tap “buy for me.” Behind the scenes, Google adds the item to your cart and completes checkout via Google Pay — without you touching a keyboard.

Target is a named Google Gemini retail partner, announced by Google CEO Sundar Pichai at NRF 2026. This is not a generic partnership. When “Buy For Me” goes live at scale, it will represent the first true machine-to-machine (M2M) agentic commerce program with mass consumer reach. An automated, bypass-checkout flow with no human in the loop at the moment of purchase. Target sees this coming. Their terms update is the legal groundwork being laid before launch.

Why Target Is Uniquely Exposed

Target has the largest card services footprint of any US merchant. Approximately 25 million customers that hold a portfolio including:

  • Decoupled debit (Circle card – aka Target Red Card)
  • Closed loop
  • Co-brand credit (issued with TD Bank)
  • Prepaid products

These cards, with integrated loyalty and discounts, drive roughly 24% of Target’s total sales. It is a massive proprietary stake in payments (and a massive liability exposure if agentic purchases go wrong at scale).

The ACP Problem: Simulating the Consumer’s Device

As I wrote in Device Graph Extinction, Stripe’s Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) is currently the most operationally capable agentic payment protocol in the market. ACP is notable for one specific capability: it can simulate a consumer’s device environment, backfilling device telemetry (via Stripe Radar data) for transactions that originate from an agent rather than a human. In plain English: ACP can make an automated M2M transaction look, to a merchant’s fraud system, like a normal human-initiated purchase.

This is a direct threat to the 30-year fraud investment that merchants like Target have made. Their risk models depend on behavioral signals — time on site, device fingerprints, navigation patterns. An agent that simulates a device but bypasses the checkout UI strips all of that signal away.

Target’s new terms are also a message to OpenAI and Stripe ACP: You may be able to simulate and bypass controls. But if you do, the consumer owns the fraud — not us.

The Paze Problem: Why Target Won’t Accept a Bank-Led Solution

As I outlined in my analysis of UCP Enables a New Economy, the US bank consortium’s Paze wallet has failed to gain merchant traction, and that failure is structural and political.

Target will not participate in an agentic commerce framework that excludes its proprietary card portfolio. The Paze consortium represents only the top 6 V/MA Issuers. It excludes other cards and also serves as a blocker to V/MA (DAF and TAF) rule sets. If Target is going to take risk in agentic, it certainly isn’t going to add to that risk in a new payment system they have not control over, AND excludes their cards (Duh).

Target’s logic is straightforward: we will not accept an agentic architecture that pushes risk onto us for transactions we can’t see, can’t control, and can’t dispute through our own instruments.

Merchant of Record and the Checkout Control Imperative

IMHO Visa and Mastercard have built a very solid technical and rule infrastructure to manage agentic risk. DAF (Device Authentication Framework) and TAF (Transaction Authentication Framework), along with VAS services like Visa TAP and Mastercard AgentPay, are designed precisely to govern M2M payment flows with liability shift potential. It is open, and standardized.

While AgentPay and Intelligent Commerce will play in ROW, US Banks are effective blockers. For example, AP2 mandates could be sent in “buy for me” BUT retailers own the risk, don’t control authorization process (or including AP2 Mandates within a 3DS payload), AND US banks have no plans to act on them.

Without issuer participation in a formal liability shift framework, merchants like Target bear 100% of the fraud risk — as they do today in US eCommerce. A “Buy For Me” flow that bypasses merchant checkout also bypasses the device data capture that powers Target’s risk models.

Target must own the checkout experience. It is not stubbornness. It is the only available mechanism for risk management in the absence of a network-governed liability shift that includes their full card portfolio. As I noted in UCP Enables a New Economy, UCP’s embedded checkout (iFrame) flow preserves exactly this.

Google Buy For Me represents the first REAL Machine to Machine (M2M) agentic transaction flow. Since merchants own the risk, they can set the consumer terms. Target’s consumer terms act as a liability fence before the product launches. If a consumer’s Gemini agent buys 47 shower curtain rings at 3am, Target wants it on the record that this was an authorized transaction. I also see it as a message to the ecosystem. Any AI platform (Gemini, ChatGPT, Stripe ACP) that attempts to simulate a consumer device or bypass the checkout flow is operating in a zone where the consumer owns the consequences. Target will not absorb the cost.

Until network stakeholders align, the “Your Bot Is Your Responsibility” policy is what the liability infrastructure looks like at the starting line of M2M, I believe the V/MA frameworks will succeed in long term, but Issuers and merchants must buy in.

Related reading: UCP Enables a New Economy | Stripe Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) | Device Graph Extinction

Explaining the Death of OpenAI’s Instant Checkout

Short Blog

To my regular readers, you know the flow of data within a network is complex (see Data Games). The news that OpenAI is effectively shelving its “Instant Checkout” initiative in favor of a referral-based “conversational commerce” model shouldn’t come as a surprise. While the tech press might frame this as a strategic pivot, those of us in the eCommerce trenches know it for what it is: a collision with merchant’s role in risk, costs, CX, control and their own AI dreams.

OpenAI attempted to solve its monetization problem by trying to seize control of the top of the funnel, betting that the sheer volume of consumer demand would force merchants to bow to their interface. They were wrong. They fundamentally miscalculated the power dynamics of the transaction and the complexity of the global conversion funnel, a funnel that Google understands intimately because they serve both ends of it globally (ie merchant partners).

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Agentic Recap – Last Week’s Big Announcements. 

Sorry for delay.. Just had a new grandson on Wednesday, and everyone is doing fine. One quick note, if your looking for one of my old posts, or topics like AP2, try my new search. Completely rebuilt to look through my posts and all “trusted” authorities on a topic.

Exec Summary

Last week’s flurry of announcements confirmed our thesis: Agentic commerce is off to a slow start, and the “machine-to-machine” (M2M) revolution is currently a “human-in-the-loop” (HIL) reality. Despite the hype, machines aren’t autonomously settling transactions yet; they are discovery engines landing consumers on retailer checkout pages. While “lab” pilots show machine to machine transactions are technically possible – in a lab. The reality is conversational commerce, more like an enhanced search. 

Key Items covered today

  1. Agentic Hurdles are huge. Changing consumer behavior, shifting risk, economic “Gordian Knot” of value creation and pricing, Trust and Authorization, …etc. The payment piece is the “easy” party.  There will be no wholesale change in the next 2-3 years, merchants and marketplaces want to retain consumer behavior and leverage their own data, the future for most transactions will be a checkout on the merchant’s website. 
  2. Card networks are firmly established as the payment method and will retain their role as the identity infrastructure of the internet. Stablecoin is a settlement  innovation, and cards can sit on top. Visa is at least 2 yrs ahead of MA. MA’s agent pay integration to Google’s AP2 mandates is still a lab experiment that will require both Issuer and merchant approval. For example Banks will want the full intent mandate to take the risk, something neither Google nor Merchants will be keen to share. 
  3. OpenAI’s abandonment of their own wallet is very significant and a realization that merchants hold the keys in the early days of eCom, with many major merchants wanting a PAR to reference COF, not a tokenized credential where they own the risk. 
  4. Visa’s two big announcements are significant. The partnership with Bridge to issue stablecoin linked cards in 100 markets will propel a new market for cards in M2M based UCs.  “INTELLIGENT AUTHORIZATION” a universal acceptance API against different schemes and payment types, thus eliminating the need for costly infrastructure rebuilds. 
  5. When perfect authentication does happen, it will be a watershed moment for payments and every entity that provides risk services. Processors will be particularly hard hit, afterall how will processors differentiate when every payment type has 0 fraud and 100% authorization rate. Shopify and other merchant service providers (MSPs will gain significant leverage and expand their own VAS). This dynamic explains why Stripe is investing so heavily in Stablecoin, its an effort to differentiate and improve speed and a developer community in something unique.

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