Apple announced a suite of new Wallet and Apple Pay features this week at WWDC 2026. None of them will make the front page of TechCrunch. But taken together, they reflect something far more interesting: a payments team that has been quietly executing “the best” wallet vision for over a decade, among the most disciplined groups in consumer payments.
I just got back from 2 weeks of vacation and catching up on all that transpired. No one reads this blog for its technical depth, but a few browse it for the economic implications and power struggles going on behind the scenes (hence “inside baseball”).
I/O 2026 was last week (see product announcements). The Commerce team showed how Universal Cart, Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) and Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) would drive a frictionless revolution in digital commerce. By consolidating products from Search, Gemini, YouTube, and Gmail into a single persistent cart, Google is attempting to establish itself as the default transaction and orchestration layer of the internet. While consumers would love to engage across any platform and any retailer from any device…. A universal cart is also necessary for operating across any agentic platform and “specialist”. Agentic commerce is certainly gaining traction, but Walmart’s Rufas and Amazon’s Alexa also want to play in the game at the front end (so does Open AI)
Wallet expansion to universal cart is great for Google; however, it’s not great for everyone else, as platforms make for poor custodians (i.e., they are not neutral). Particularly when it comes to controlling credentials and measuring their own effectiveness. My concerns here are shared by retailers, banks, processors and networks as this architecture conceals a profound structural conflict over control and economic value. Google’s “own-it-all” will create a great customer experience, and allow them to move agentic from the current “conversational commerce to merchant checkout” state, but who wants to invest in a platform where they become disintermediated, or a dumb fulfillment pipe?
As we close the books on 2025, the payments industry finds itself at a moment that future historians will likely designate as the end of the “Interface Era” and the dawn of the “Agentic Era.” For the past three decades, the digitization of payments has been defined by the migration of human intent from POS to digital screens. From the first e-commerce transaction to the ubiquity of mobile wallets, the fundamental atomic unit of the economy remained the same: a human being, interacting with a graphical user interface (GUI), making a conscious decision to exchange value for goods or services.
Continue readingEU’s payment and identity landscape is currently the theater of a high-stakes conflict between regulatory ambition and commercial reality. For the past decade, European legislators have pursued a strategy of “regulatory innovation,” attempting to break the dominance of US-based technology platforms (Apple, Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) through legislative mandates. From the failed efforts of 2015 IFR (regulating excess profits), PSD2, PSD3 and eIDAS 2.0, the pattern is consistent: enforce technical openness in the hope that competitive markets will spontaneously emerge.
This strategy is fundamentally flawed because it conflates technical connectivity with commercial viability. While the EU has successfully legislated open APIs and is now forcing open the phone SE architecture, it has consistently failed to address the “commercial constructs” (governance, liability, and economic incentives) that make these systems work. Without a radical shift acknowledging the necessity of commercial constructs over regulation, the EU’s initiatives will result in compliant but commercially irrelevant infrastructure, that no one will monetize (or invest in), further relegating the EU to a second tier market and leaving US platforms to dominate.
I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.
Continue readingStripe’s announcedits acquisition of Privy yesterday, web3 wallet infrastructure platform that enables developers to easily build and integrate secure, self-custodial wallets into their applications with well defined APIs (consistent with everything Stripe does).
IMHO this signals an acceleration of Stripe’s strategy to dominate the intersection of eCom, wallets, Finance and stablecoin, with a likely product focus on embedding user-friendly stablecoin wallets directly into merchant checkouts and developer platforms. This will greatly expand and “juice” stablecoin adoption in eCom, particularly when combined with LINK. While it COULD present a slight challenge to cards, I don’t see near term impact there (per blog last week). US and EU consumers prefer card, merchants do as well (due to governance and customer support), ROW, micro payments, cross-border, small merchant acquiring/payfacs (and other edge UCs are a different story).
Continue readingGoogle I/O is going on today and tomorrow and they just announced a vast array of new products and services (Google CEO’s blog). Today’s blog is a quick drill down on payments and specifically what “Buy for me with GPay” means for the payment ecosystem (and agentic commerce).
As discussed in Commercial Models for AI Agents, the network and economics surrounding agentic commerce is far from settled. The lack of a clear commercial model and a robust trust framework has impeded Agentic’s growth as commerce is a multi-sided network. Google’s strategy appears to directly address these deficiencies by deeply integrating GPay as a core component of its agentic offerings. This integration aims to provide the necessary layers of trust, security, and transactional capability that have been missing. It also may provide an additional pricing mechanism for agentic transactions.
As outlined in today’s Stratechery the “lack of payments” were part of the original sin of the internet. A “sin” that Google is fixing in Agentic by creating a complex network that unites search, ML, agent-based action, payments, advertising network, billions of devices, consumer-controlled data for personalization, which will redefine eCommerce (and recapture product search). The price of entry? Merchants need to add the GPay button.
To be clear, merchants will still endeavor to use AI in order to create a better customer experience for those customers that enter their domain. But for consumers, the Google offering will be hard to beat as Google leverages their data and preferences across every device to enable customer interaction through purchase. While Amazon will likely maintain a solid position, most consumers will not start search within a merchant domain. Agentic originated transactions present a new type of demand, fully qualified consumers with a valid payment instrument and transaction request. A transaction type that should operate in a 100% conversion model (ie no abandonment). With GPay, Google provides the consumer authentication and risk data for merchants to decision the transaction.
Continue readingWhy merchants prefer cards they control. Implications for Agentic, Pay By Bank and beyond…
Short Blog. My last blogs on the topic were Acceptance Hurdles (2022) and the more technical list of 14 core processing activities in Acceptance Part 1 (2016).
An update to my Data Games – 2021
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Electronic receipts (eReceipts) COULD transform the retail landscape by offering numerous benefits to consumers and businesses. With the potential to enhance digital wallets, improve customer experiences, empower AI agents, and increase advertising effectiveness. However, the widespread adoption and sharing SKU-level data face several challenges, most of which are NOT technical. Today, I’m providing an overview of key business and economic challenges of unlocking SKU data.
Keeping up with the latest in agentic commerce, artificial intelligence (AI), payments, and data privacy is an ongoing challenge. Data and LLM are the key ingredients fueling the rapid advancements in AI and machine learning innovations. As a privacy advocate, I remain deeply concerned about the centralization of data. Once AI models are built to understand “you,” they no longer need continuous access to your data—just ongoing observation (see blogs on Data Centralization and Payments and the Observer Effect).
Do I think wallets will become “Agents”? No, but they will be the most important interface to all Agents, as they broker identity, authentication, authorization, permissions and highly secure data in the handset. My view is that Wallets enable many agents. This view of the the world is called the Agentic Mesh where specialized agents work together to achieve a result.