Category Archives: Platform

How Will Stripe Treasury and Balance Impact SMB Banks?

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I am a loyal Bank of America customer (personal and business); I have absolutely no interest in changing banks given their 20+ year history of consistent service. I’m also a Stripe customer (blog payments) and am fantastically satisfied with their payment processing. Yesterday I received this email from Stripe.

I’m now enabled for Stripe Treasury. With a single button click I can now move money in real time anywhere in the world for $0 cost and earn 1% on my balance. 

This is an amazing value proposition. My 15 seconds of effort to turn this on led me to think about the impact of Treasury and Balance on SMB banks. Feedback appreciated.

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Stripe Link Balance

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This week Stripe launched Link balance for AI agents, starting with Instinct (Announced on X by Stripe). Stripe balance is the “agent control dashboard” where Consumers add money, set a per purchase limit, and their agent can buy without asking for approval every time. Read it. On the surface it is a wallet feature. Underneath it is Stripe building a consumer business, because right now Stripe is the only company that can make agentic payments work.

I think this is brilliant, but Issuing banks, merchants, MSPs and other agentic Platforms should take note of Stripe’s very big expansion into consumer direct interaction

What Stripe Launched

The stack has four parts

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Trust, Data, AI and Specialized Agents

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Trust and Governance could turn AI into a powerful force for decentralization, community, and value creation.

This is a big picture blog: my hypothesis on the forces shaping how AI and commerce will evolve. It builds on two posts I return to often. The New Economy: Small Wins (2016) argued for an economy where millions of small businesses thrive. Part 3: Internet 2.5, The Next Wave is Here (2022) argued that trust is the core of networks and commerce, how it changes is the key shaping force in the “next wave”. AI is now testing both ideas at once.

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PayPal – Stripe/Advent: Whose Deal Is This?

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As a reminder, I’m not a financial analyst, more of a payment historian, operator and P&L exec. This is my third pass at the Stripe/Advent bid for PayPal. The first was reporting on the Reuters story. The second was opinion, built around three concerns: merchant pricing, enterprise access, and consumer engagement. Something changed since then, and it did not come from the deal. It came from Stripe.

This week Stripe confirmed its acquisition of OpenRouter for more than $7 billion, and the Collisons published a letter to investors talking about “the singularity” and the economics of AI token flow. OpenRouter has nothing to do with PayPal. That is precisely why it matters. Read the letter alongside Stripe’s annual letter from February and you get an unusually clear statement of where this company thinks its growth comes from. PayPal is not in that statement. Not adjacent to it. Not implied by it. Absent.

Thus this blog represents my internal dialog as I ask myself: whose deal is this? My answer: this is Advent’s deal. Stripe is in the room for one or two assets, and the structure of the bid is starting to show it.

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Apple – Klarna: Equipment Financing

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Last week, Apple launched Apple Upgrade, a device leasing program for iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac, and iPad in the United States, provided by Klarna. Apple simultaneously retired the iPhone Upgrade Program (financed by Citizens Bank) and iPhone Payments.

This is a very big deal, and it is the culmination of a strategy I first outlined over a decade ago. Equipment financing has always been the prize. Everything else Apple has done in consumer finance (Apple Card, Apple Pay Later, Apple Card Monthly Installments, the savings account) was either a stepping stone, a learning exercise, or a partner accommodation. Apple Upgrade is the main event.

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Stripe/Advent – PayPal: My Thoughts

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Two weeks ago I wrote up the Reuters report that Stripe and Advent had offered $53B for PayPal. That post was mostly reporting, plus some structural background on operating models and processing volumes. This one is opinion. You have been warned.

Let me start with the disclaimer that matters. I am not a financial analyst. I have no idea whether paying roughly 7x PayPal’s ~$8B in EBIT is a bargain or bizare. Kenneth Suchoski at Autonomous Research put the implied multiple at about 11x 2027 NOPAT and called the financing “a lot of debt to put on this asset,” which sounds about right to me, but he does this for a living and I do not.

What I do know something about is payment networks, merchant behavior, and consumer adoption. On those three dimensions I have 3 concerns:

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Stripe/Advent offer $53B to buy PayPal

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Sometimes the biggest signal is not the price, it is who is showing up with the money. This morning, Reuters reported that Stripe and Advent International have jointly offered to acquire PayPal for more than $53 billion. Stripe, the largest privately held payments company on the planet, has walked into the room and said, in effect, we would like to own the incumbent. That framing alone reorganizes how you should read the last five years of PayPal’s decline and the next five years of network competition.

I have been writing about PayPal’s structural problems for a long time. Most recently in PayPal, Alex is Gone, Enrique is In. Recommended Focus, where I argued that Enrique Lores was inheriting a “dumpster fire” of acquisitions and shifting consumer focus, and that the only path forward was decisive surgery on the operating model. A $53B “take private” from Stripe and Advent is one very specific answer to that question. Today’s blog is a quick overview of the Reuters report together with my own read, and questions any investor should be asking before they get out over their skis on this.

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Can Processors Win a Role in Agentic?

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Adyen’s stock is down over 40% this year. Investors aren’t just punishing one company; they’re repricing the entire processor category as agentic commerce threatens to restructure who controls economics and merchant relationships. The market sees what I’ve been writing about for 18 months: processors are at risk of becoming dumb pipes.

Yesterday, Adyen announced Adyen Agentic a suite of modular APIs encompassing Agentic Feed (product/inventory), Agentic Cart (checkout orchestration), and Agentic Payments (authentication, fraud, tokenization). The positioning is explicit: a “universal translator” that lets merchants integrate once and participate across every agent platform, protocol, and payment method.

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Augustus Protocol & Emerging Settlement Standards: The Crypto Clearing Bank Arrives

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In May 2026, Augustus (formerly Ivy) received conditional OCC approval to establish the first “AI-era clearing bank” a federally chartered national bank built on a stablecoin-native core designed for 24/7 programmable clearing. The announcement has drawn attention for its ambition: replacing legacy correspondent banking infrastructure with always-on, machine-initiated settlement. But beneath the compelling narrative lies a more nuanced reality about the structure of U.S. financial settlement and the commercial dynamics that govern it.

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WWDC 2026: Apple Wallet

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Apple announced a suite of new Wallet and Apple Pay features this week at WWDC 2026. None of them will make the front page of TechCrunch. But taken together, they reflect something far more interesting: a payments team that has been quietly executing “the best” wallet vision for over a decade, among the most disciplined groups in consumer payments.

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