Pricing Agentic: Economic Models for a New Kind of Demand

$4B market opportunity (18 mo), who will lead it?

Today’s blog covers possible pricing models and market structures for agentic transactions, a new type of demand (purchase order with a payment instrument). Retailers may despise the idea of a new aggregator, but they can’t say “no” to a PO by their customer. US retailers spend over $400B on marketing ($90B of which is digital marketing). There is no CAC for an agentic transaction.. While the daily innovations of AI and Agentic is fascinating, it is the economics and structures for pricing value that will influence participation, value creation and market success.

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2025 Tech Tsunami will Expand Network Role (and VAS)

A snarky blog. My views on why the role of card networks will grow in the midst of this change (along with Network VAS).

Buckle up buttercups, because the commerce, banking, and payments world is getting a facelift so extreme, it’ll make a Kardashian look like a Luddite. If you thought Web 3.0 and its decentralized pipe dreams were the next big thing, bless your heart. AI and Agentic Commerce are the actual party, and they’re about to flip the table.

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Agentic’s Real Economic Opportunity: Edge Use Cases

This blog is a monster 25 pages. Hence the executive summary

Transformation seldom starts at the core of an existing market or business, but rather starts in edge use cases of unmet needs and price performance (ie, Innovators Dilemma). Edge UCs may be the biggest economic opportunity for Agentic, organizing hyperlocal, DTC and the food chain to create a new kind of market. If these edge UCs can be addressed in the US, it also greatly expands the global market opportunity as small regional needs resemble the edge.

The consumer benefit of this approach is an awareness of the very different “purpose” of agentic platforms vs Amazon or Walmart.  Imagine identifying which businesses and service providers could address your needs locally. 

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Agentic Commerce Economics and Governance

The “Agentic Era,” promises to revolutionize commerce and customer experience by automating complex purchasing tasks. Agentic’s transformative potential is constrained by the lack of clearly defined shared economic models. 

While the vision of a decentralized Web 3.0 remains unfulfilled, the Agentic Era presents its own set of complex economic questions regarding value creation, distribution, and governance. This blog explores the challenges in establishing shared economic models for agentic commerce by taking a look at Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Network Theory to analyze the interplay among consumers, merchants, AI agent platforms, and other stakeholders. We address issues of value attribution, data monetization, trust, risk allocation, permissions and the necessity for robust governance structures beyond mere technical interoperability.

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Retailer Actions in Agentic Commerce

Navigating a New Demand Paradigm and Its Two-Sided Imperative

The rise of agentic commerce, where AI agents could potentially execute purchases for consumers, signals more than an evolutionary step in e-commerce; it represents the emergence of a new type of demand: a direct customer buy order, theoretically complete with payment authorization. This presents a two-sided imperative for retailers. Firstly, ensuring your products are discoverable and favorably considered by these AI agents an “SEO for the agentic era.” Secondly, developing the organizational capacity to act on this demand, potentially bypassing traditional e-commerce pathways for direct fulfillment via APIs, with updates to fraud and risk screening.

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Big News – Google I/O 2025 – Payments View

Google I/O is going on today and tomorrow and they just announced a vast array of new products and services (Google CEO’s blog). Today’s blog is a quick drill down on payments and specifically what “Buy for me with GPay” means for the payment ecosystem (and agentic commerce).

As discussed in Commercial Models for AI Agents, the network and economics surrounding agentic commerce is far from settled. The lack of a clear commercial model and a robust trust framework has impeded Agentic’s growth as commerce is a multi-sided network. Google’s strategy appears to directly address these deficiencies by deeply integrating GPay as a core component of its agentic offerings. This integration aims to provide the necessary layers of trust, security, and transactional capability that have been missing. It also may provide an additional pricing mechanism for agentic transactions.

As outlined in today’s Stratechery the “lack of payments” were part of the original sin of the internet. A “sin” that Google is fixing in Agentic by creating a complex network that unites search, ML, agent-based action, payments, advertising network, billions of devices, consumer-controlled data for personalization, which will redefine eCommerce (and recapture product search). The price of entry? Merchants need to add the GPay button.

To be clear, merchants will still endeavor to use AI in order to create a better customer experience for those customers that enter their domain. But for consumers, the Google offering will be hard to beat as Google leverages their data and preferences across every device to enable customer interaction through purchase.  While Amazon will likely maintain a solid position, most consumers will not start search within a merchant domain. Agentic originated transactions present a new type of demand, fully qualified consumers with a valid payment instrument and transaction request. A transaction type that should operate in a 100% conversion model (ie no abandonment). With GPay, Google provides the consumer authentication and risk data for merchants to decision the transaction.

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Visa Product Drop – Enabling Agentic 

Today Visa provided products, partnerships and demonstrations of “Visa Intelligent Commerce enables AI to find and buy”. This is a very significant effort from Visa that extends their leadership as the payment and identity infrastructure of the internet, to new era of AI and Agentic Commerce. 

What is the new problems it is solving? Payments geeks understand Card Present (CP) and Card Not Present (CNP) transactions, but agents raise the question of WHO authorized the agent and for what purpose?  Visa solves this problem by extending existing facilities like tokenization and FIDO based authentication, with agents receiving finer-grained authorization (from consumer) using limited-use tokens that restrict authorization and consumer control (expiration/time, amount and merchant).   

Within an agentic transaction flow, authentication by the Agent operator is not good enough for the merchant that will bear the risk in the transaction, the merchant must also be able to authenticate the consumer and obtain authorization for the transaction (see Tokens and Binding 101 and Separating Payments and Identity).

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Agentic Payments – Card Considerations

Options for Cards in Agentic Commerce (Sorry for typos.. )

My friend Simon Taylor wrote an excellent post on the 4 Models of Agentic Payments last week. Discussion in the industry is great, and while I respect Simon’s views, we are not entirely aligned. My focus today is on the card options. 

As I discussed in Agentic Wallets and Federated Data, the models of agentic commerce are in a very high state of flux. While early leaders like OpenAI’s Operator and Perplexity demonstrate the power of what is possible, Google, Amazon and others are in a much better position to use their deep consumer insights and direct connections (from phone and search to Alexa). The initial retailer reaction to Agentic is not positive, with one saying, “We are not looking to enable another Google to disintermediate us in product search; we have our own plans to use AI to improve consumer experience”.  What is certain? AI will profoundly impact how goods are sold and how consumers interact with retailers and specialists (see Hype and Reality of Agentic Commerce). 

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eReciepts – The Politics and Economics of SKU Data

An update to my Data Games – 2021

© Starpoint LLP, 2025. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner.

Electronic receipts (eReceipts) COULD transform the retail landscape by offering numerous benefits to consumers and businesses. With the potential to enhance digital wallets, improve customer experiences, empower AI agents, and increase advertising effectiveness. However, the widespread adoption and sharing SKU-level data face several challenges, most of which are NOT technical. Today, I’m providing an overview of key business and economic challenges of unlocking SKU data.

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