Tag Archives: shopify

Visa CLI and X402 CONVERGENCE

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Last week I wrote about MPP and x402 solving the internet’s original sin: the inability of machines to pay machines without a human in the loop. This week, Visa made that argument a lot easier to make.

Visa Crypto Labs quietly launched Visa CLI, a command line tool that gives AI agents a wallet. One npm install. One setup command. And your agent can pay for anything on the internet, charged to a real Visa card, without an API key, without a pre-funded crypto wallet, without human intervention.

I got beta access this week and tested it. Here’s what I learned, and why I think the CLI is the most important signal yet that the incumbent payment networks are serious about the agentic commerce era.

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The Evolution of Checkout: Invisible, Instant, and Everything In Between

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My friend Simon Taylor at Fintech Brainfood published a provocative piece this week: The Checkout is Dead, Part 2. His thesis is elegant — the future of agentic commerce is invisible. No cart. No confirmation screen. No “Pay Now” button. Just an event in the world, and money moves.

IMHO He’s right about the general direction. But he’s wrong about the scope and timeline. Not everything fits in instant, and its really important to look not only at OpenAI’s instant checkout FAILURE at Walmart, but also their internal success (ie Sparky driving 35% sales increase with internal checkout).

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Explaining the Death of OpenAI’s Instant Checkout

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Short Blog

To my regular readers, you know the flow of data within a network is complex (see Data Games). The news that OpenAI is effectively shelving its “Instant Checkout” initiative in favor of a referral-based “conversational commerce” model shouldn’t come as a surprise. While the tech press might frame this as a strategic pivot, those of us in the eCommerce trenches know it for what it is: a collision with merchant’s role in risk, costs, CX, control and their own AI dreams.

OpenAI attempted to solve its monetization problem by trying to seize control of the top of the funnel, betting that the sheer volume of consumer demand would force merchants to bow to their interface. They were wrong. They fundamentally miscalculated the power dynamics of the transaction and the complexity of the global conversion funnel, a funnel that Google understands intimately because they serve both ends of it globally (ie merchant partners).

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Stripe Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)

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The best, and perhaps only, operable protocol that can solve agent payment issues today.

Stripe’s Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), co-developed with OpenAI, is a functional leap forward in enabling agentic commerce. While its open-source nature invites broad adoption, Stripe is uniquely able to “make it work” by leveraging its existing fraud-fighting assets. Another less reported benefit of ACP is payment rail agnostic operation. ACP will work for paybybank, PIX, EFTPOS, Swish, Bizum or anything else. Anywhere that Stipe’s device graph and Radar (Risk/Fraud) are effective. Stripe’s secure payment token plus risk signals allow merchants to operate the way they do today (no operational change).

ACP may only have a limited 2-3 yr runway as more advanced authentication methods become mainstream, and network rule sets/services advance to serve all agent providers (leveling the playing field).

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Agentic Commerce – I’ve Seen a Lot of “Revolutions”. This One Feels Different.

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Hello from Alberta and the Columbia Ice Fields. During the drive I’ve put together a Case study in how Shopify is Building a key piece of the new model. Also drill down on monetization as the Gordian Knot that will determine how Agentic Commerce Operates.

I’ve been in the payments and retail space for almost three decades. I was there for the dot-com boom and bust, the shift from plastic to mobile wallets, the birth of amazon and Google, and the rise of the platform economy. I’ve seen enough hype cycles to fill a library. Each time, we were promised a revolution that would change everything. And while some of those shifts were significant, they were ultimately evolutionary. eCommerce added a channel, mobile created more shopping interactions and more points to influence,  but were mostly the same commercially. 

This time, I have to admit, it feels different. The rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence aren’t just creating a new channel; they are actively dismantling the foundational economic bargain of the internet. The core paradigms I’ve operated on for my entire career is being invalidated in real-time.

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The Next GREAT RETAILER CONSOLIDATION? 

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Can retailers resist AI Platforms? I don’t think so..

Agentic Commerce is in a state of flux. While the AI platforms provide a glimpse of what conversational commerce will look like, most aren’t able to complete a transaction. 

Shopify and OpenAi are leading the way in creating a best in class integration that will change all that (see overview). For the millions of merchants on Shopify’s platform, participating in the conversational AI revolution will become as simple as flicking a switch. Shopify is handling the backend (real-time product data/inventory, payment and checkout). I love Shopify; their execution is consistently flawless, and I have no doubt this will be another seamless, successful product launch.

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Stablecoin Winners and Losers

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Summary

Winners:

  • Card Networks (Mostly Insulated): Their core business as ubiquitous real-time messaging networks for authorization and value-added services is largely unaffected. They are the top on=ramp (Visa Direct) and the top off-ramp (linked card). Networks will expand services to support issuer demand for stablecoin settlement and services. Within OECD 20 markets, there is no merchant demand for stablecoin in eCommerce.  
  • Emerging Markets: Stablecoins provide crucial financial access, inflation hedging, and efficient remittances where traditional banking is broken or local currencies are unstable, especially in Africa.  
  • Edge and Non-Card UCs. Low value payments, remittances, … 
  • Corporate Treasury and Treasury Platforms: Fortune 100 enterprises gain significant efficiencies in cash management through real-time liquidity, reduced costs, and enhanced transparency.  
  • Dollarization – US Treasury: The growth of USD-pegged stablecoins, driven by regulations like the Genius Act, creates substantial demand for US Treasuries, reinforcing dollar dominance. Tether is already a top buyer.  
  • Existing Banks: Despite some fee pressure, banks are adapting by integrating stablecoins into their services, leveraging their customer relationships and regulatory expertise to remain central players.  
  • Fintech Enablers (Stripe, Shopify): These platforms expand their global reach by making stablecoin acceptance and payouts easier for merchants, particularly in cross-border commerce.  
  • KYC/AML Service Providers: Increased regulatory clarity and stablecoin adoption drive demand for robust identity verification and anti-money laundering services.
  • Wallets/Consumer Champion? PayPal? Enabling wallets in non-carded markets and a new model in eCom and POS (this is Stripe Privy).

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Stablecoins – A New Model of Trust enabled by Technology?

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Part 1 – Programmable Settlement

Summary

The defining innovation of stablecoins is not the technology itself, but the trust architecture they enable. While today’s business architecture will NOT be turned upside down, the stablecoin frame does enable new models for managing legal contracts, systems interaction,  operational governance, all within a new regulatory superstructure.

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eCom Innovation Success – Shop Pay

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Short blog as follow up to yesterday’s blog on Acceptance Hurdles in eCommerce. Successful innovation requires a great new customer experience and/or economic model. The most recent success in the US is Shopify’s Shop Pay.

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