CBDCs – Growth Opportunities for US Banks

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The future for a US CBDC is uncertain. While President Biden signed an executive order in March 2022 directing the government to “Explore a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) by placing urgency on research and development of a potential United States CBD”, US banks seem dead against it.

This is my third blog on CBDCs, today the focus will be on the societal benefits of CBDCs, current bank resistance, and the opportunities for banks if they embrace it. The previous 2 blogs are blow and I’ll try not to repeat myself:

  • Digital Dollar (March ‘21) – Inventory of Central bank efforts and drivers with key detail on China’s digital yuan. 
  • Case for CBDC – Market Efficiency (June ‘21) – Is focused on the benefits to the unbanked and in reducing friction in low-value payments. 

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Consumer Data Bureau?

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Short blog today as opposed to the 9 page monster in identity and attribution Friday.  Today I’m providing my thoughts on what a consumer data bureau would look like.  Summary: Banks have a unique opportunity to create a consumer data bureau and be the key “switch” for regulated and permissioned data. Will they seize it?

Per blog yesterday, everyone has a partial view of you based upon their observations and what you trust them to hold (see Payments and Observer Effect). The more often you interact with a single entity, the more they learn about you. Today Google and Amazon know you much better than your bank. Any unique insights that a bank may have is limited by their ability to take part in that transaction. Thus entities, with the ability to initiate transactions, have the most control (summary of Identity will Define Future of Trust Blog).

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Trust Assertions – Identity Will Define the Future of Payment Networks

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©Thomas Noyes, May 2022

My blogs last week have me thinking about the changes going around in Identity. This will be a long blog. Typo warning.. I’m still revising. 

The number one thing I look for in payments is change: volume, technology, behavior, data, …etc. Effective networks are notoriously hard to change, but they are also very resilient (see blog). Small changes in data flows, can lead to significant changes in margin and “control”.  Margin and control guide both public and private investment (see Evolution of Visa and Mastercard Beyond Payments). 

Identity is our most important asset — it’s literally who we are. 

Our complete “identity” is known to no one, as each entity we interact with has a partial view of us based upon what we chose to give them and what they observe. How others accept and validate our identity, and how others share insight about us, is the core of payments (see Trust Networks and Authentication in Value Nets). The structure, exchange, and assertions associated with identity are defining: web3, DeFi, Crypto, CBDCs and the Metaverse. These are not separate silos, but rather overlapping ecosystems that must interact, thus the importance of bridging identity across networks/domains (see Blog – Trust is domain specific). 

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Start Ups in a Downturn: Key Actions

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Thought I would share the recommendations I’m making to the companies I advise. To be clear we aren’t in a downturn yet, but you may want to consider some actions today. A start-up is like a small boat on the ocean: the highs are higher and the lows are lower (and you feel it in between). We are in for some rough weather and it’s important to prepare for the storm and particularly new lows that have never been experienced by anyone in your organization. 

Open to your thoughts here. Sorry for typos..

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Google Wallet Re-Launch

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Last week we saw a major relaunch of Google Wallet at Google I/O. See

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Secure Remote Commerce – May 2022

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Short Blog. I wanted to follow up on the last point I made in Bank ID Service – What Is It?

Some US Banks are refusing to jump on board SRC. As managers of risk, Banks are reluctant to accept network services which level the playing field in both managing risk and “diluting” their brand.… In some respects Authentify is a response to SRC.

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PIX Brazil – Short Blog

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Brazil’s Central Bank is now recognized as the leading innovator. Both in PIX and CDBC launch this year.

Identifying new networks is a must for any investor. The growth rate of network businesses dwarf most other models as each node invests something in joining. Mobile has transformed the time for network effects to reach critical mass – moving from 20 yrs (think debit card and mobile phones) to months. When network effects take hold, Investors see opportunity in both the network core (owner) and the periphery. We also look at how new services will impact existing established players

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eCom Innovation Success – Shop Pay

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Short blog as follow up to yesterday’s blog on Acceptance Hurdles in eCommerce. Successful innovation requires a great new customer experience and/or economic model. The most recent success in the US is Shopify’s Shop Pay.

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Acceptance Hurdles

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This is a continuation thought from 3 blogs I put together last year: ACH, A2A and Marketing Incentives, Acceptance Part 1 and A2A – Threat to V/MA?  A great part of blogging is getting feedback. While I’m long in the tooth, I’m not the deep expert in every area. Writing blogs usually leads to feedback from the experts. 

Question for today. IF a new payment scheme were developed for eCommerce what are the hurdles to acceptance?

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