eCommerce 2025 – Wallets, Share Shift, Conversion Rates and Key Segments

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My estimates for how US eCom market share will shift in next 3 yrs are at the end of this blog.

eCommerce is not a single monolithic market. There are many “segments” to optimize that vary by geography, retailer type, consumer device, customer type (guest vs loyal), transaction type (recurring vs new), ad type, payment type,…etc. A great source of this information is Monetate (highly recommend). For example, let’s look at conversion rates by industry, device and region.

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Digital Wallets – Core Functions and Competitive Strategies

What are the core functions of a digital wallet and what will the future bring now that Apple has opened up their Secure Element (see blog)?

I’ve been writing about wallets for over 12 yrs. Let me recap some history

  1. In 2006, mobile operators had control of what “apps” could operate on a phone. In the US Qualcom bought Firethorne in an effort to create a single bank application, where banks had to pay $1 for every balance request. I’m not joking.. Open app stores destroyed this model quickly, but so the MNOs pivoted to the SE and SIM card. 
  2. In 2010, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) had control of the encryption keys for secure elements. Their pitch to Google was, “Give us a billion dollars, and we’ll give you the keys”. The absurdity here was only surpassed by Doug Bergeron (CEO of Verifone) marching into Google the next year and asking for a “Billion dollars” for Verifone to support contactless (I was just outside the meeting room).  Of course there was no economic model for Google to make a single penny off of payments back then. Even worse, there were 12 parties in the NFC ecosystem, all looking for economics, yet there wasn’t a dime to share between all of them (blog). Now wrap all this silliness into a MNO consortium with the name ISIS.. yep.. What a great brand!
  3. From 2008-2014 the GSMA had a global vision for managing the phone’s secure storage (see blog) and monetizing it for the MNOs. MNOs could control either the secure storage within the SIM card with Single Wire Protocol (SWP) or within the secure element.
  4. ApplePay’s 2014 launch did several things that changed the game. 1) Ripped away control of the SE from MNOs and OEMs, 2) integrated payments and security into the OS (Card in SE, biometrics in Secure Enclave), 3) required a card to activate a new phone, 4) Created economics with the networks for payment (see blog).
  5. From 2007-2014, US Issuers wanted to only enable credit cards for contactless (a premium experience). 27 Issuers (led by Citi’s Paul Galant) were working on their own wallet, to “own” mobile payments (see Civil War). In 2014 launch of ApplePay, Apple forced the Issuers to enable debit at parity to Credit, and also gave Issuers a take it or leave it revenue share (15bps in US, 7bps in EU and ROW). Charlie Sharff (then CEO of Visa) also established a fundamental network rule in “no wrapping”. You can’t wrap a Visa card with another number and let it operate. A rule that was ahead of its time and also more formerly established with Durbin regulations.
  6. The 27 bank project thus floundered for 16 yrs until last year when saw  the light of day in PAZE. Paze is Gen 5 of this effort, and really a white label version of SRC. A wallet that abandons the POS and focuses on eCom with Visa given the reigns as the lead architect only last year (see eCom Politics and Scenarios)
  7. Today, Issuers classify Apple as “enemy number 1” because of the 15bps fee that the Issuers voluntarily signed up for. Their renewed complaint is that merchant discounts (ie 45 bps and Costco, Walmart and Target) puts them upside down on transaction economics. Apple’s position (anecdotally)  is “you knew what my fee was when you gave the discounts.. You voluntarily signed the agreement.. And now its successful you want a discount”? (see 2022 US Payments Environment)
  8. Visa and Mastercard have become the identity infrastructure for the internet because of the binding of identity to payment. India’s UIDAI and UPI have shown the power of separating identity from payment. Europe is working to build a new digital identity infrastructure (and wallet) in eIDAS. Commerccially, Fast Identity Online (FIDO) is at the heart of new eCommerce experiences that will massively disrupt investments in risk and fraud infrastructure. These services are in Card Networks Payment Passkeys, PayPal’s Fastlane and others. These first generation identity services will be surpassed by 2nd generation identity solutions with hardware bound credentials. Google’s Seccure Payment Authentication (SPA) is the best in class authentication solution globally. (also see Adios 3DS hello FIDO2). 
  9. While the tech changing eCom is amazing, there are only 3 options for organizing it into a successful platform: 1) Government Led, 2) Standards Led, 3) Commercial (payment) Network. Of the 3 only V/MA have established an economic model where participants can invest (see Identity Models and my new blog this week on topic)
  10. Wallets have grown substantially from “payments” to the consumer interaction point for “everything” between the virtual and physical world. Door keys, concert tickets, boarding passes, DLs, loyalty cards, student IDs (see Apple’s list of UC’s it will support). 

     

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eCom 2025 

18 months of Revolutionary Change in How we Buy Online

Short Blog

Follow up to my June 2024 blogs – eCom Politics and Scenarios and Fastlane + FIDO Enabled Checkout. Today, we focus on the changes, what merchants are asking for, and what consumers will adopt (and when). 

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eCom – Politics and Scenarios

Frank Young – Contributor

What are banks talking about this week? How did Apple’s announcement impact them? While 15bps on 2% of eCom GDV is a nuisance, 15bps on 15% of eComm GDV is an earthquake. 

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Adios 3DS “Step up”.. Hello FIDO2

Short Blog

There are significant changes brewing in eCommerce authentication and authorization. Today’s blog is more of a headline summary of key points that I hope to break down over Thanksgiving. 

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Paze Update – 4 Elements of the PAZE Wallet (70% confidence)

© Starpoint LLP, 2022. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced in whole or in part in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner.

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Over the last 5 yrs I’ve written 9 blogs on PAZE/SRC, and over 20 on the TCH’s 13 yr effort to own mobile payments. Today is my update and latest best guess at what they are building. This is a 70% confidence guess based upon my discussions with Merchants, Early Warning alumni, former bank execs, and previous releases (ex Authentify). 

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SRC – Why Now and What is the Opportunity?

Short blog. What opportunity are top US issuers chasing with an SRC wallet?

During my talks with top acquirers, I gained new insight into eCommerce volumes. As a committed ApplePay user I was shocked to hear that ApplePay use in browser is significantly under 5% (even in iOS/Mac devices). Per my blog on intersections, the dynamic is due to both Chrome vs Safari and merchant adoption.

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Banks Launch “Wallet” (again)

Short Blog

Per the WSJ Article this AM, US banks have launched a new wallet (again). For frequent readers of my blog, very little new news. Also, I’m just wrapping up a 15-page part 4 “Innovation in Networks” that will be out very soon. 

Quick Summary

  • TCH Banks have been contemplating a mobile wallet and a new network for 13 yrs (I have over 20 blogs on topic, see overview here). 
  • Today we gain clarity that Banks gave up on their latest Authentify Wallet launch and jumped on board a “white label” SRC wallet led by Visa (See 23Jan2023 WSJ). I outlined this in my SRC blog (Sept 2022) and TCH RTP Update.  
  • Inital pitch for this wallet was not well received by big retailers at Money 2020. It entailed a liability shift if wallet was offered and all COF were tokenized (see blog)
  • The wallet is not owned by EWS, but a new payment network led by James Anderson. The ownership of this new network is the same at EWS (see blog ). Lets call this wallet EWS SRC to shorten the name. 
  • Competitor is Apple.. the banks want to own the mobile payment experience. Google is working with the TCH banks and is also working with FedNow (long blog coming on this one). It is likely that Apple is not involved in any of these activities, yet Google is working to pilot both FedNow and TCH RTP to leverage their India UPI success.
  • Now that the largest TCH banks have jumped on board SRC, the TCH RTP effort focus has shifted to commercial flows and bill payment.
  • i provided a detailed strategic discussion on the reasoning behind this move in Part 2 – The Power of Bank Networks.

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Part 2 – The Power of Bank Networks

The Bull Case for V/MA (24 pages). 

© Starpoint LLP, 2022. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced in whole or in part in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner.

Part 1 – US Payments Environment covered the complexity of the US payment environment and the challenges faced by top banks in modernizing their systems (where all systems live forever). There are many types of payments: bill payments, A2A, P2P, wires.. Today the focus is on how banks intermediate commerce. Banks MUST have networks as every bank can’t connect to every consumer/merchant. Effective Bank networks (aka rails) are NOT a commodity service, but one that allows the banks to leverage their unique ability to assume risk.

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