2025: The Great Decoupling

Year-End Payments Recap

Summary: B2B Stablecoin and The End of the Interface Era

As we close the books on 2025, the payments industry finds itself at  a moment that future historians will likely designate as the end of the “Interface Era” and the dawn of the “Agentic Era.” For the past three decades, the digitization of payments has been defined by the migration of human intent from POS to digital screens. From the first e-commerce transaction to the ubiquity of mobile wallets, the fundamental atomic unit of the economy remained the same: a human being, interacting with a graphical user interface (GUI), making a conscious decision to exchange value for goods or services.

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Europe’s Siege – Digital Sovereignty Strategy

Summary

EU’s  payment and identity landscape is currently the theater of a high-stakes conflict between regulatory ambition and commercial reality. For the past decade, European legislators have pursued a strategy of “regulatory innovation,” attempting to break the dominance of US-based technology platforms (Apple, Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) through legislative mandates. From the failed efforts of 2015 IFR (regulating excess profits), PSD2, PSD3 and eIDAS 2.0, the pattern is consistent: enforce technical openness in the hope that competitive markets will spontaneously emerge.

This strategy is fundamentally flawed because it conflates technical connectivity with commercial viability. While the EU has successfully legislated open APIs and is now forcing open the phone SE architecture, it has consistently failed to address the “commercial constructs” (governance, liability, and economic incentives) that make these systems work. Without a radical shift acknowledging the necessity of commercial constructs over regulation, the EU’s initiatives will result in compliant but commercially irrelevant infrastructure, that no one will monetize (or invest in), further relegating the EU to a second tier market and leaving US platforms to dominate.

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The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

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Stripe Acquires Privy – Link expands as Does Stripe’s “Gatekeeper” Position

Stripe’s announcedits acquisition of Privy yesterday, web3 wallet infrastructure platform that enables developers to easily build and integrate secure, self-custodial wallets into their applications with well defined APIs (consistent with everything Stripe does). 

IMHO this signals an acceleration of Stripe’s strategy to dominate the intersection of eCom, wallets, Finance and stablecoin, with a likely product focus on embedding user-friendly stablecoin wallets directly into merchant checkouts and developer platforms. This will greatly expand and “juice” stablecoin adoption in eCom, particularly when combined with LINK. While it COULD present a slight challenge to cards, I don’t see near term impact there (per blog last week). US and EU consumers prefer card, merchants do as well (due to governance and customer support), ROW, micro payments, cross-border, small merchant acquiring/payfacs (and other edge UCs are a different story). 

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Big News – Google I/O 2025 – Payments View

Google I/O is going on today and tomorrow and they just announced a vast array of new products and services (Google CEO’s blog). Today’s blog is a quick drill down on payments and specifically what “Buy for me with GPay” means for the payment ecosystem (and agentic commerce).

As discussed in Commercial Models for AI Agents, the network and economics surrounding agentic commerce is far from settled. The lack of a clear commercial model and a robust trust framework has impeded Agentic’s growth as commerce is a multi-sided network. Google’s strategy appears to directly address these deficiencies by deeply integrating GPay as a core component of its agentic offerings. This integration aims to provide the necessary layers of trust, security, and transactional capability that have been missing. It also may provide an additional pricing mechanism for agentic transactions.

As outlined in today’s Stratechery the “lack of payments” were part of the original sin of the internet. A “sin” that Google is fixing in Agentic by creating a complex network that unites search, ML, agent-based action, payments, advertising network, billions of devices, consumer-controlled data for personalization, which will redefine eCommerce (and recapture product search). The price of entry? Merchants need to add the GPay button.

To be clear, merchants will still endeavor to use AI in order to create a better customer experience for those customers that enter their domain. But for consumers, the Google offering will be hard to beat as Google leverages their data and preferences across every device to enable customer interaction through purchase.  While Amazon will likely maintain a solid position, most consumers will not start search within a merchant domain. Agentic originated transactions present a new type of demand, fully qualified consumers with a valid payment instrument and transaction request. A transaction type that should operate in a 100% conversion model (ie no abandonment). With GPay, Google provides the consumer authentication and risk data for merchants to decision the transaction.

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Understanding Merchants – Cards on FIle

Why merchants prefer cards they control. Implications for Agentic, Pay By Bank and beyond… 

Short Blog. My last blogs on the topic were Acceptance Hurdles (2022) and the more technical list of 14 core processing activities in Acceptance Part 1 (2016). 

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eReciepts – The Politics and Economics of SKU Data

An update to my Data Games – 2021

© Starpoint LLP, 2025. No part of this site, blog.starpointllp.com, may be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part in any manner without the permission of the copyright owner.

Electronic receipts (eReceipts) COULD transform the retail landscape by offering numerous benefits to consumers and businesses. With the potential to enhance digital wallets, improve customer experiences, empower AI agents, and increase advertising effectiveness. However, the widespread adoption and sharing SKU-level data face several challenges, most of which are NOT technical. Today, I’m providing an overview of key business and economic challenges of unlocking SKU data.

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Scenario – Agentic Wallets and Federated Data

Keeping up with the latest in agentic commerce, artificial intelligence (AI), payments, and data privacy is an ongoing challenge. Data and LLM are the key ingredients fueling the rapid advancements in AI and machine learning innovations. As a privacy advocate, I remain deeply concerned about the centralization of data. Once AI models are built to understand “you,” they no longer need continuous access to your data—just ongoing observation (see blogs on Data Centralization and Payments and the Observer Effect).

Do I think wallets will become “Agents”? No, but they will be the most important interface to all Agents, as they broker identity, authentication, authorization, permissions and highly secure data in the handset. My view is that Wallets enable many agents. This view of the the world is called the Agentic Mesh where specialized agents work together to achieve a result.

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Wallets and Privacy

I’m on a brief vacation celebrating my 28th anniversary and deep in thought (pic below). What am I thinking of here on the beach? Wallets, Networks, Trust and Privacy.

The Case for Separating Wallets from Identity Providers

As digital identities continue to evolve, one of the most important debates centers around who controls and operates the wallet that holds these identities. Specifically, should wallets be separated from authorities that legally issue “identity”—commonly known as Identity Providers (IdPs)? This issue is particularly relevant in countries like India and Europe, where digital identity initiatives have made significant strides, yet their approaches raise important questions about privacy and control.

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Digital Wallets – Core Functions and Competitive Strategies

What are the core functions of a digital wallet and what will the future bring now that Apple has opened up their Secure Element (see blog)?

I’ve been writing about wallets for over 12 yrs. Let me recap some history

  1. In 2006, mobile operators had control of what “apps” could operate on a phone. In the US Qualcom bought Firethorne in an effort to create a single bank application, where banks had to pay $1 for every balance request. I’m not joking.. Open app stores destroyed this model quickly, but so the MNOs pivoted to the SE and SIM card. 
  2. In 2010, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) had control of the encryption keys for secure elements. Their pitch to Google was, “Give us a billion dollars, and we’ll give you the keys”. The absurdity here was only surpassed by Doug Bergeron (CEO of Verifone) marching into Google the next year and asking for a “Billion dollars” for Verifone to support contactless (I was just outside the meeting room).  Of course there was no economic model for Google to make a single penny off of payments back then. Even worse, there were 12 parties in the NFC ecosystem, all looking for economics, yet there wasn’t a dime to share between all of them (blog). Now wrap all this silliness into a MNO consortium with the name ISIS.. yep.. What a great brand!
  3. From 2008-2014 the GSMA had a global vision for managing the phone’s secure storage (see blog) and monetizing it for the MNOs. MNOs could control either the secure storage within the SIM card with Single Wire Protocol (SWP) or within the secure element.
  4. ApplePay’s 2014 launch did several things that changed the game. 1) Ripped away control of the SE from MNOs and OEMs, 2) integrated payments and security into the OS (Card in SE, biometrics in Secure Enclave), 3) required a card to activate a new phone, 4) Created economics with the networks for payment (see blog).
  5. From 2007-2014, US Issuers wanted to only enable credit cards for contactless (a premium experience). 27 Issuers (led by Citi’s Paul Galant) were working on their own wallet, to “own” mobile payments (see Civil War). In 2014 launch of ApplePay, Apple forced the Issuers to enable debit at parity to Credit, and also gave Issuers a take it or leave it revenue share (15bps in US, 7bps in EU and ROW). Charlie Sharff (then CEO of Visa) also established a fundamental network rule in “no wrapping”. You can’t wrap a Visa card with another number and let it operate. A rule that was ahead of its time and also more formerly established with Durbin regulations.
  6. The 27 bank project thus floundered for 16 yrs until last year when saw  the light of day in PAZE. Paze is Gen 5 of this effort, and really a white label version of SRC. A wallet that abandons the POS and focuses on eCom with Visa given the reigns as the lead architect only last year (see eCom Politics and Scenarios)
  7. Today, Issuers classify Apple as “enemy number 1” because of the 15bps fee that the Issuers voluntarily signed up for. Their renewed complaint is that merchant discounts (ie 45 bps and Costco, Walmart and Target) puts them upside down on transaction economics. Apple’s position (anecdotally)  is “you knew what my fee was when you gave the discounts.. You voluntarily signed the agreement.. And now its successful you want a discount”? (see 2022 US Payments Environment)
  8. Visa and Mastercard have become the identity infrastructure for the internet because of the binding of identity to payment. India’s UIDAI and UPI have shown the power of separating identity from payment. Europe is working to build a new digital identity infrastructure (and wallet) in eIDAS. Commerccially, Fast Identity Online (FIDO) is at the heart of new eCommerce experiences that will massively disrupt investments in risk and fraud infrastructure. These services are in Card Networks Payment Passkeys, PayPal’s Fastlane and others. These first generation identity services will be surpassed by 2nd generation identity solutions with hardware bound credentials. Google’s Seccure Payment Authentication (SPA) is the best in class authentication solution globally. (also see Adios 3DS hello FIDO2). 
  9. While the tech changing eCom is amazing, there are only 3 options for organizing it into a successful platform: 1) Government Led, 2) Standards Led, 3) Commercial (payment) Network. Of the 3 only V/MA have established an economic model where participants can invest (see Identity Models and my new blog this week on topic)
  10. Wallets have grown substantially from “payments” to the consumer interaction point for “everything” between the virtual and physical world. Door keys, concert tickets, boarding passes, DLs, loyalty cards, student IDs (see Apple’s list of UC’s it will support). 

     

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