X402 Foundation

Short Blog

The x402 Foundation was publicly announced last week on September 23, 2025, as a joint initiative between Coinbase and Cloudflare. This effort aims to solve the governance issue in agentic. The design COULD SOLVE the governance issues outlined in Governance in Payments as well as last month’s Agentic Commerce Economics and Governance. As a refresh, my position is that monetization/governance is the Gordian knot preventing AI from moving to next stage of growth. 

While Google’s AP2 suffers from a dependency on settlement governance and the inability to expand trust beyond their own domain (see AP2 blog), x402 is just a standard that handles payment terms negotiations between two APIs (both price and method). The foundation turns x402 into a “network) with an operational model, active governance and economics. My example is that an existing customer would have payment managed with a current card on file and the merchant owning risk, whereas a new customer (or new machine request) could agree on a non-refundable stablecoin payment.  

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ApplePay’s 11th birthday in iOS 26 – What’s New?

ApplePay turns 11 yrs old this month, a wallet that has gone from 0 to 84 countries and 11,000 banks. Hard to believe, my blog was the first to break the news of ApplePay in iPhone 6 back in 2014.  Back then I was on the advisory board of Money2020, and asked M2020 co-founder Johnathan Weiner to hold a place in the agenda for Apple Pay. September rolled around and we still had an “empty” slot, I told him to trust me. It worked out well, as Apple finally rolled it out on September 9th 2014.  There was so much innovation in the initial wallet from tokenization, provisioning, credentials in the secure enclave, … and of course the game of chicken Apple played with Issuers on their 15bs (in US, 7bps in EU see story). 

I just installed iOS 26 this morning, so what’s new in iOS 26 w/ ApplePay

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The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

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Pricing Agentic: Economic Models for a New Kind of Demand

$4B market opportunity (18 mo), who will lead it?

Today’s blog covers possible pricing models and market structures for agentic transactions, a new type of demand (purchase order with a payment instrument). Retailers may despise the idea of a new aggregator, but they can’t say “no” to a PO by their customer. US retailers spend over $400B on marketing ($90B of which is digital marketing). There is no CAC for an agentic transaction.. While the daily innovations of AI and Agentic is fascinating, it is the economics and structures for pricing value that will influence participation, value creation and market success.

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Could Stripe Drive eCom Stablecoin Adoption? (A: Maybe, but they wouldn’t do it)

Following up on yesterday’s discussion about the potential for US Banks to issue stablecoins, the fintech world is abuzz after Stripe’s Sessions announcements covering AI and stablecoin. Given Stripe’s massive influence,  any move they make warrants attention. The question on many payment strategy executives’ minds: Is Stripe about to unleash stablecoins to circumvent traditional card rails for consumer payments? While the crypto-evangelists might be shouting “yes!”, a more pragmatic and skeptical view suggests this is highly unlikely, at least for the core retail checkout experience.

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Big News – Google I/O 2025 – Payments View

Google I/O is going on today and tomorrow and they just announced a vast array of new products and services (Google CEO’s blog). Today’s blog is a quick drill down on payments and specifically what “Buy for me with GPay” means for the payment ecosystem (and agentic commerce).

As discussed in Commercial Models for AI Agents, the network and economics surrounding agentic commerce is far from settled. The lack of a clear commercial model and a robust trust framework has impeded Agentic’s growth as commerce is a multi-sided network. Google’s strategy appears to directly address these deficiencies by deeply integrating GPay as a core component of its agentic offerings. This integration aims to provide the necessary layers of trust, security, and transactional capability that have been missing. It also may provide an additional pricing mechanism for agentic transactions.

As outlined in today’s Stratechery the “lack of payments” were part of the original sin of the internet. A “sin” that Google is fixing in Agentic by creating a complex network that unites search, ML, agent-based action, payments, advertising network, billions of devices, consumer-controlled data for personalization, which will redefine eCommerce (and recapture product search). The price of entry? Merchants need to add the GPay button.

To be clear, merchants will still endeavor to use AI in order to create a better customer experience for those customers that enter their domain. But for consumers, the Google offering will be hard to beat as Google leverages their data and preferences across every device to enable customer interaction through purchase.  While Amazon will likely maintain a solid position, most consumers will not start search within a merchant domain. Agentic originated transactions present a new type of demand, fully qualified consumers with a valid payment instrument and transaction request. A transaction type that should operate in a 100% conversion model (ie no abandonment). With GPay, Google provides the consumer authentication and risk data for merchants to decision the transaction.

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Stablecoins: Near-Term Predictions

12 Page Blog

Key Themes

  • Stablecoin growth is booming in the areas of remittance, cross-border, disbursement, and B2B supply chain. 
  • Card volumes face no threat as they remain the “last mile” of use and an economic model for stable coin issuers. 
  • The STABLE and GENIUS acts are driving significant central bank discussions, with divergent views on response in Europe. 
  • Asia is developing differently, with the effectiveness of Ukraine sanctions and fear of dollarization driving central banks to a CBDC approach.
  • The value of any network corresponds to the combined investment made by all parties around it. Stablecoin is the fastest-growing network and at the core of most FinTech investments.
  • PayPal, and legacy remittance providers are under a substantial near term threat
  • Expect big tech and mobile platforms to support stablecoins in new ways (ex recurring payments and emerging markets). 
  • A small number of low profit Banking segments are also at risk, as Stablecoin issuers become banks and threaten niche payment providers like Cash App, as well as specialists in categories like MSB, NBFCs, ELMI, …etc.

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Scenario – Agentic Wallets and Federated Data

Keeping up with the latest in agentic commerce, artificial intelligence (AI), payments, and data privacy is an ongoing challenge. Data and LLM are the key ingredients fueling the rapid advancements in AI and machine learning innovations. As a privacy advocate, I remain deeply concerned about the centralization of data. Once AI models are built to understand “you,” they no longer need continuous access to your data—just ongoing observation (see blogs on Data Centralization and Payments and the Observer Effect).

Do I think wallets will become “Agents”? No, but they will be the most important interface to all Agents, as they broker identity, authentication, authorization, permissions and highly secure data in the handset. My view is that Wallets enable many agents. This view of the the world is called the Agentic Mesh where specialized agents work together to achieve a result.

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Winning in Network of Networks: Collaboration

My largest holdings are card networks, and I’m very keen on their continued growth and sustainability of competitive advantage. My confidence is based on five broad themes. 

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Tokens and Binding 101

Let’s talk about tokens. When discussing tokens and payments, it’s important to clarify which category of tokens you’re talking about. Today, I’m not discussing NFTs; instead, I’m discussing card network tokens. It’s hard to believe I’ve been writing on this subject for almost 15 years. For a historical refresh, here are a few of my old blogs

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