Stablecoin Scenarios

Summary

The digital asset ecosystem has graduated from a decade of speculative experimentation to a decisive phase of infrastructure modernization. For fifteen years, the discourse surrounding blockchain technology has been dominated by the volatility of crypto-assets, effectively obscuring the underlying utility of the technology. That era has concluded. We are now witnessing the industrialization of the sector, where stablecoins have emerged not as a new form of money, but as a fundamental settlement innovation (see blog).

The GENIUS Act has provided the regulatory clarity required to transition stablecoins from the periphery of finance to its very core. This legislative milestone has catalyzed a geopolitical shockwave, prompting European finance ministers to declare U.S. stablecoins a greater threat to monetary sovereignty than trade tariffs. But while the Genius act codified “trust” in an instrument (reducing settlement risk to stablecoin issuer balance sheet), it does not address disputes and broader governance issues associated with managing participants across diverse processes and regulatory regimes.

The maturation of stablecoins is not a revolution that overthrows established banks and payments system; it is an evolution that upgrades it. The rails are being replaced while the train is moving, and those who understand the mechanics of the new tracks will determine the destination of global capital.

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V/MA Settlement – Tiered Acceptance

Quick Take on WSJ – V/MA Near Deal w/ Merchants

Merchants have long expressed frustration over card costs, but it’s critical to separate signal from noise. Their issue isn’t with network fees—those average just 5 to 7 basis points and fund the global infrastructure that securely moves trillions. The real pressure point is interchange, often 250 basis points or more for premium rewards cards. That imbalance has shaped years of litigation, and now a potential reset is emerging.

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X402 Foundation

Short Blog

The x402 Foundation was publicly announced last week on September 23, 2025, as a joint initiative between Coinbase and Cloudflare. This effort aims to solve the governance issue in agentic. The design COULD SOLVE the governance issues outlined in Governance in Payments as well as last month’s Agentic Commerce Economics and Governance. As a refresh, my position is that monetization/governance is the Gordian knot preventing AI from moving to next stage of growth. 

While Google’s AP2 suffers from a dependency on settlement governance and the inability to expand trust beyond their own domain (see AP2 blog), x402 is just a standard that handles payment terms negotiations between two APIs (both price and method). The foundation turns x402 into a “network) with an operational model, active governance and economics. My example is that an existing customer would have payment managed with a current card on file and the merchant owning risk, whereas a new customer (or new machine request) could agree on a non-refundable stablecoin payment.  

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Governance in Payments

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Long blog – Paid Content

Executive Summary

I’ve been writing about governance, trust, transaction costs and payments for a long time. In my view THE KEY to understanding how stablecoins, agentic, DeFi, Open Banking, tokenization and other payment innovations is governance. I seem to be the only one writing about it, so I don’t see a reason to stop now. Governance is the BIGGEST competitive moat for Visa and Mastercard, and its also the heart of their biggest break out growth opportunity. If you thought AI was transformational, radically reducing transaction costs (TCE per Nobel work of Ronald Coase) will dwarf it. In fact the monetization of AI is a Gordian knot of governance issues (see Agentic Commerce and Governance). 

Today I’m expanding on “value exchange” governance with 5 core themes.

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ApplePay’s 11th birthday in iOS 26 – What’s New?

ApplePay turns 11 yrs old this month, a wallet that has gone from 0 to 84 countries and 11,000 banks. Hard to believe, my blog was the first to break the news of ApplePay in iPhone 6 back in 2014.  Back then I was on the advisory board of Money2020, and asked M2020 co-founder Johnathan Weiner to hold a place in the agenda for Apple Pay. September rolled around and we still had an “empty” slot, I told him to trust me. It worked out well, as Apple finally rolled it out on September 9th 2014.  There was so much innovation in the initial wallet from tokenization, provisioning, credentials in the secure enclave, … and of course the game of chicken Apple played with Issuers on their 15bs (in US, 7bps in EU see story). 

I just installed iOS 26 this morning, so what’s new in iOS 26 w/ ApplePay

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Pay by Bank Double Whammy

I’ve never been a fan of “Pay by Bank.” It’s a solution in search of a problem, especially when compared to the efficiency of debit cards and the global reach of Visa Direct. Now, two major developments have dealt a significant blow to the already weak business case for this payment method.

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Durbin Debit Fees Reduced

In a significant ruling on yesterday (Aug 7)) U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Traynor struck down “swipe fees” cap that non-exempt banks can charge merchants for debit card transactions. The decision found that the Federal Reserve had exceeded its authority by allowing these fees to be higher than intended by law (ie include provisions for “fraud”).

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The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

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B2B Payments: Cards, RTP, and Stablecoins 

Exec Summary

  • B2B payments are a great source of growth for card and RTP networks, with 90% of volume remaining on check and ACH. But investors and innovators hoping to flip volume must assess the market with a great deal of skepticism. No one wants to pay a bill more quickly. There are 2 key factors to look at when assessing B2B payments: 1) Who holds the power in the relationship (ex Supply Chain Channel Master) and 2) How is it sold and bundled with other services (ex Quickbooks/SAP procurement).
  • I don’t see this as an impact to any current GDV flows in next 3 yrs, only growth impairment. It takes time to change contracts.

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Big News – Google I/O 2025 – Payments View

Google I/O is going on today and tomorrow and they just announced a vast array of new products and services (Google CEO’s blog). Today’s blog is a quick drill down on payments and specifically what “Buy for me with GPay” means for the payment ecosystem (and agentic commerce).

As discussed in Commercial Models for AI Agents, the network and economics surrounding agentic commerce is far from settled. The lack of a clear commercial model and a robust trust framework has impeded Agentic’s growth as commerce is a multi-sided network. Google’s strategy appears to directly address these deficiencies by deeply integrating GPay as a core component of its agentic offerings. This integration aims to provide the necessary layers of trust, security, and transactional capability that have been missing. It also may provide an additional pricing mechanism for agentic transactions.

As outlined in today’s Stratechery the “lack of payments” were part of the original sin of the internet. A “sin” that Google is fixing in Agentic by creating a complex network that unites search, ML, agent-based action, payments, advertising network, billions of devices, consumer-controlled data for personalization, which will redefine eCommerce (and recapture product search). The price of entry? Merchants need to add the GPay button.

To be clear, merchants will still endeavor to use AI in order to create a better customer experience for those customers that enter their domain. But for consumers, the Google offering will be hard to beat as Google leverages their data and preferences across every device to enable customer interaction through purchase.  While Amazon will likely maintain a solid position, most consumers will not start search within a merchant domain. Agentic originated transactions present a new type of demand, fully qualified consumers with a valid payment instrument and transaction request. A transaction type that should operate in a 100% conversion model (ie no abandonment). With GPay, Google provides the consumer authentication and risk data for merchants to decision the transaction.

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