I hope to finish part 2 – Power of Bank Networks tomorrow (12-15 pages). In the meantime I have to recap a few key developments this week.
Continue readingShort Blog – Key developments this week
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Part 1 – US Payments Environment
Assessing the Environment and Setting the Focus (part 2 – Power of Bank Networks)
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Must read FT article “How JPMC’s plan to kill credit cards split the bank”. The article discusses Jamie Dimon’s internal mandate to drive a new payment network. I was shocked with the level of internal org quotes here. In my view, Jamie is the best bank CEOs in history (based on performance and talent coming out of JPMC). As a former banker, I know how hard it is to move the ship. However, FT is wrong. Chase’s efforts ARE NOT about killing credit cards, but rather creating something much bigger.
This is a long blog..
Continue readingPay By Bank – Where does it work and why?
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Friday I was a tad “let down” in the Sionic/TCH/MX release of Pay-by-Bank. Per my blog on Google/TCH launch and Google P2P I was anticipating something much bigger. To be clear I firmly believe that TCH is working on an “ApplePay Competitor”, which will entail TCH tokens inside of Google’s phone, but this will be 3-6 months out. Per the blogs above, I see neither pay-by-bank nor TCH Tokens in Google Pay as a threat to V/MA.
Today I thought I would drill down into “pay by bank”, the dynamics of why it works in some markets, and why I see little threat to V/MA in replacing core cards in eCom or at POS.
Google/FedNow + Banks Hire New Network CEO
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September 7
This blog is dated so I removed most of the content. Key Updates – 21 Jan 2023
- Banks gave up on their own AUthentify Wallet launch and jumped on board a “white label” SRC wallet led by Visa (See 23Jan2023 WSJ)
- Banks have been working on mobile payments for 13 years through TCH (see blog).
- Inital pitch was at Money 2020, big retailers didn’t bite (see blog)
- The wallet is not owned by EWS, but a new payment network led by James Anderson. The ownership of this new network is the same at EWS (see blog below).
- Competitor is Apple.. the banks want to own the mobile payment experience. Google is working with the TCH banks and is also working with FedNow (long blog coming on this one)
- TCH RTP effort focus has move to commercial flows and bill payment.. Forbes Article on Launch of Pay by Bank using TCH. Google’s role seems to be limited to hosting servers in the Google Cloud. This was NOT the big announcement I thought was coming. It looks like the TCH tokens in Google Wallet are actually “network tokens” with token vault as TCH
- Apple is not involved in any of these activities, yet Google is working to pilot both FedNow and TCH RTP to leverage their India UPI success.
- The banks have just hired James Anderson as CEO of a new banking consortium where the assets of TCH, Akoya and Early Warning line up. This CEO will be tasked with creating a new network to “compete with ApplePay” as the premier mobile payment platform.
Durbin 2 – Short Update
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What are the new Durbin’s legislative prospects? A: Not at all likely (<10% probability)
Top retailers spent this week meeting with Bank CEOs trying to convince them to support the new Durbin legislation. Their pitch was to enable bi-lateral deals, “new products” and avoid network rules (see blog). Banks did not seem to bite, as they remembered the lessons of Durbin 1:
- Only largest merchants benefited from dual routing
- Consumers lost in debit rewards (ie keep the change), increased bank account fees, and no merchant pass-through of savings
- Acquirers/processors did not pass through fee reductions to most merchants
- Networks recovered lost revenue through merchant fees
- Large banks lost competitive advantage as smaller “exempt” banks under $10B operated under different rules
- See WSJ article
TCH Tokens in eCom SRC Model
Part 1 – Current US Routing Rules
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UPDATE – Nov 29 2022 – Note that I have conflated the relationship between SRC and 3DS 2.0. 3DS 2.0 is the authentication protocol used by SRC. 3DS 2.0 has been widely adopted as a mandatory replacement to 3DS 1.0. Part of the driver for adoption was the EU SCA mandate. SRC has NOT been widely adopted as it is a fairly broken consumer experience at the moment.
Driving Vision of Durbin? Bi-Lateral Connections?
I now have 70% confidence in the forces shaping Durbin (still no threat to V/MA).
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Durbin 2 – Impact on “Wrapping” Rules?
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A highly technical “what if” scenario involving a long-sought after change by top US card issuers. I’m fortunate to have the exec teams of just about every payment network, processor and FinTech read this blog. I have 3 main drivers for writing today:
- Start a community discussion
- Assess the potential for a much more strategic driver behind the proposed Durbin bill
- Most “change” in US payments is driven by 7-10 players: networks, top issuers, Google, Apple, … etc. These changes have an enormous impact on the FinTechs building around them. I’m hoping to help these small companies plan around these changes as the only advantage of a start is speed.
Note I DO NOT think this scenario is likely, but rather possible (30% probability). Historical context is key and the only reason I’m spending time on this today is that 27 bank CEOs have been discussing this for over 10 yrs.
Dual Routing for ?Credit?
BNPL Travel Example – Short Blog
Short blog today on an example BNPL opportunity and the differences between a consumer BNPL solution like Apple Pay Later and Merchant integrated solutions from providers such as Affirm (or SQ/Afterpay see Three Flavors of BNPL). Today Air Travel and Vacation packages are the focus.