In a significant ruling on yesterday (Aug 7)) U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Traynor struck down “swipe fees” cap that non-exempt banks can charge merchants for debit card transactions. The decision found that the Federal Reserve had exceeded its authority by allowing these fees to be higher than intended by law (ie include provisions for “fraud”).
I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.
Continue readingGoogle I/O is going on today and tomorrow and they just announced a vast array of new products and services (Google CEO’s blog). Today’s blog is a quick drill down on payments and specifically what “Buy for me with GPay” means for the payment ecosystem (and agentic commerce).
As discussed in Commercial Models for AI Agents, the network and economics surrounding agentic commerce is far from settled. The lack of a clear commercial model and a robust trust framework has impeded Agentic’s growth as commerce is a multi-sided network. Google’s strategy appears to directly address these deficiencies by deeply integrating GPay as a core component of its agentic offerings. This integration aims to provide the necessary layers of trust, security, and transactional capability that have been missing. It also may provide an additional pricing mechanism for agentic transactions.
As outlined in today’s Stratechery the “lack of payments” were part of the original sin of the internet. A “sin” that Google is fixing in Agentic by creating a complex network that unites search, ML, agent-based action, payments, advertising network, billions of devices, consumer-controlled data for personalization, which will redefine eCommerce (and recapture product search). The price of entry? Merchants need to add the GPay button.
To be clear, merchants will still endeavor to use AI in order to create a better customer experience for those customers that enter their domain. But for consumers, the Google offering will be hard to beat as Google leverages their data and preferences across every device to enable customer interaction through purchase. While Amazon will likely maintain a solid position, most consumers will not start search within a merchant domain. Agentic originated transactions present a new type of demand, fully qualified consumers with a valid payment instrument and transaction request. A transaction type that should operate in a 100% conversion model (ie no abandonment). With GPay, Google provides the consumer authentication and risk data for merchants to decision the transaction.
Continue readingWhat are the strategic drivers of change?
Where are the profit pools and how will they disperse?
Retail payments have been a cornerstone of growth and shareholder returns for decades, delivering TSRs that rivaled the tech sector. But this golden era of easy expansion is fading. Today, growth is slowing and investors are refocusing on unit economics, distinguishing between platforms with SaaS-like predictability and those more exposed to the vicissitudes of consumer credit, deposit spreads, and regulation (see Cap Gemini World Payments Report)..
This change in tone isn’t just financial, it’s structural. Value creation is migrating away from volume and into experience, infrastructure, and intelligence.
Impact of Stablecoins on Banks and Central Banks, the Upside for V/MA.
Stablecoins took many amazing leaps in the last 2 weeks. Key developments include
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Adyen was the largest network “tokenizer” and realized the benefits through enhanced authorization rates and reduced fraud. As I explained in Tokens and Binding 101, this history of tokens in payments is long, with each stakeholder maintaining an ability to tokenize. While all token strategies protect data, network tokens differ in RULES, binding (to a customer and device) and acceptance. For example, Visa’s Cloud Token Framework (CTF) and Mastercard’s Digital Enablement Services (MDES) address 6 key areas:
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Visa held their Investor Day last week on Feb 20, and I encourage everyone to read through the presentations. Most of you know my strong network bias, V/MA are my top personal holdings. I’m not a financial analyst; my investment hypothesis rests on the strategic need for card networks and their sustainable advantage in meeting those needs.
Let me provide my top 7 reasons why I am so firmly behind the networks, with references to investor day content and my previous blogs.
Continue readingUS Payment Infrastructure is in the midst of completing a major renovation.
Let me preempt the #1 question most of you are about to ask “are card volumes at risk”? Nope, why on earth would banks want to walk away from the most profitable retail banking product in the history of man (see Future of Retail Banking)!?