Tag Archives: visa

The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

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I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

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Retail Banking and Stablecoins

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Friction, Float, and the Future

As a Banker, Founder and Payment Historian who has spent too long watching icebergs melt, I’ve seen many technologies promise to upend the banking industry. Most have been evolutionary, not revolutionary. But the advent of digital dollars, particularly consumer-facing stablecoins, are unique. Payments are the core of retail banking and profitability. Payments are a networked business, not just in card but in every consortium and association. As I outlined in The Power of Bank Networks, these networks are the engines that drive economies and how banks connect to the environment. For my colleagues in banking and payments, understanding how (or if) stablecoins impact payments is very important.

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Stablecoin Winners and Losers

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Summary

Winners:

  • Card Networks (Mostly Insulated): Their core business as ubiquitous real-time messaging networks for authorization and value-added services is largely unaffected. They are the top on=ramp (Visa Direct) and the top off-ramp (linked card). Networks will expand services to support issuer demand for stablecoin settlement and services. Within OECD 20 markets, there is no merchant demand for stablecoin in eCommerce.  
  • Emerging Markets: Stablecoins provide crucial financial access, inflation hedging, and efficient remittances where traditional banking is broken or local currencies are unstable, especially in Africa.  
  • Edge and Non-Card UCs. Low value payments, remittances, … 
  • Corporate Treasury and Treasury Platforms: Fortune 100 enterprises gain significant efficiencies in cash management through real-time liquidity, reduced costs, and enhanced transparency.  
  • Dollarization – US Treasury: The growth of USD-pegged stablecoins, driven by regulations like the Genius Act, creates substantial demand for US Treasuries, reinforcing dollar dominance. Tether is already a top buyer.  
  • Existing Banks: Despite some fee pressure, banks are adapting by integrating stablecoins into their services, leveraging their customer relationships and regulatory expertise to remain central players.  
  • Fintech Enablers (Stripe, Shopify): These platforms expand their global reach by making stablecoin acceptance and payouts easier for merchants, particularly in cross-border commerce.  
  • KYC/AML Service Providers: Increased regulatory clarity and stablecoin adoption drive demand for robust identity verification and anti-money laundering services.
  • Wallets/Consumer Champion? PayPal? Enabling wallets in non-carded markets and a new model in eCom and POS (this is Stripe Privy).
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B2B Payments: Cards, RTP, and Stablecoins 

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Exec Summary

  • B2B payments are a great source of growth for card and RTP networks, with 90% of volume remaining on check and ACH. But investors and innovators hoping to flip volume must assess the market with a great deal of skepticism. No one wants to pay a bill more quickly. There are 2 key factors to look at when assessing B2B payments: 1) Who holds the power in the relationship (ex Supply Chain Channel Master) and 2) How is it sold and bundled with other services (ex Quickbooks/SAP procurement).

  • I don’t see this as an impact to any current GDV flows in next 3 yrs, only growth impairment. It takes time to change contracts.

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Stablecoins – A New Model of Trust enabled by Technology?

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Part 1 – Programmable Settlement

Summary

The defining innovation of stablecoins is not the technology itself, but the trust architecture they enable. While today’s business architecture will NOT be turned upside down, the stablecoin frame does enable new models for managing legal contracts, systems interaction,  operational governance, all within a new regulatory superstructure.

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Message to Bank CEOs as Stablecoins Take Hold

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Bank Payment Strategy in the World of Agentic and Stablecoin

Stripe’s recent moves are massive and will solve stablecoin acceptance (globally). When (and if) a consumer champion goes all in on stablecoin we will see change in payment innovation akin to the “age of enlightenment”.  What are banks to do?


Cards are the most profitable banking product in the history of retail banking, and the power of banking is unlocked within the networks that link them (blog). While the power of banking is unlocked in networks, network innovation is like herding cats as each stakeholder works to protect their existing investments and competitive advantage (see Network Innovation).

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Pricing Agentic: Economic Models for a New Kind of Demand

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$4B market opportunity (18 mo), who will lead it?

Today’s blog covers possible pricing models and market structures for agentic transactions, a new type of demand (purchase order with a payment instrument). Retailers may despise the idea of a new aggregator, but they can’t say “no” to a PO by their customer. US retailers spend over $400B on marketing ($90B of which is digital marketing). There is no CAC for an agentic transaction.. While the daily innovations of AI and Agentic is fascinating, it is the economics and structures for pricing value that will influence participation, value creation and market success.

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2025 Tech Tsunami will Expand Network Role (and VAS)

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A snarky blog. My views on why the role of card networks will grow in the midst of this change (along with Network VAS).

Buckle up buttercups, because the commerce, banking, and payments world is getting a facelift so extreme, it’ll make a Kardashian look like a Luddite. If you thought Web 3.0 and its decentralized pipe dreams were the next big thing, bless your heart. AI and Agentic Commerce are the actual party, and they’re about to flip the table.

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Agentic’s Real Economic Opportunity: Edge Use Cases

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This blog is a monster 25 pages. Hence the executive summary

Transformation seldom starts at the core of an existing market or business, but rather starts in edge use cases of unmet needs and price performance (ie, Innovators Dilemma). Edge UCs may be the biggest economic opportunity for Agentic, organizing hyperlocal, DTC and the food chain to create a new kind of market. If these edge UCs can be addressed in the US, it also greatly expands the global market opportunity as small regional needs resemble the edge.

The consumer benefit of this approach is an awareness of the very different “purpose” of agentic platforms vs Amazon or Walmart.  Imagine identifying which businesses and service providers could address your needs locally. 

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