Agentic Commerce – Killing Small Retailers?

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I’ve been in the eCommerce game for a while, last month I outlined why I thought edge use cases where the biggest opportunity for Agentic Commerce. The idea was simple. While the big retailers focus on building great CX with their own data, the real, unsolved problems in commerce exist in the long tail ( the small retailers without massive marketing departments). Think about finding an in-stock item for pickup today, or a slightly used version right in your community. That’s where I saw the gold.

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The Shakeup PayPal Needs

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Rumors are that a substantial organizational change at PayPal is in progress. Frankly, it’s overdue. For any global payments company to succeed, its leaders must possess a deep, almost intuitive, understanding of the global payments ecosystem. This is where PayPal is currently failing.

We have a CEO, Alex Chriss, known as a product specialist. While he may be excellent at getting products out the door, this is not the problem PayPal faces. Unfortunately, the team can’t see the forest fire given their conspicuously poor payment background. For example, look at Diego Scotti as EVP and GM of the consumer group. His experience comes from Verizon, and his chief credential is that he is the husband of Janey Whiteside, one of Alex’s closest payment advisors. When growth doesn’t happen and targets get missed, investors begin to look for the reasons and the resumes of those running the ship.

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Stablecoins Will Drive Network Growth

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Drivers, Current Efforts and My View of the Big Picture Opportunity. Do Stablecoins represent the greatest network expansion opportunity of the next decade? I think so…

PODCAST of this Blog on Spotify

Everyone knows I’m a big fan of Visa and Mastercard. Why not? They are the most successful commercial networks in the history of man. The power of banking is unlocked within the networks that connect them (see Power of Bank Networks) and V/MA are the largest “connectors” in the world (banks, consumers, businesses). While many pundits see stablecoin as a threat to cards, I don’t see it that way at all. In fact, I think Stablecoin-based innovation will help drive a new phase of growth in the networks (as well as dollarization). 

Today’s blog provides background on the current network efforts in stablecoin settlement. I’m also attempting to outline the “why” and business case for card networks expanding their role, the number of nodes on the network, and the political dynamics at work behind the scenes. Why read this? In my view this subject is the core of a bull case for network expansion.  IMHO Investors should not look at stablecoins as a threat to V/MA, but rather as another network where V/MA can deliver value and grow the network at a massive scale.. A once-in-a-generation opportunity.

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Genius Law – What to Expect?

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Yesterday President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law, clearing the path for dollar-backed stablecoins. As I’ve argued before, the future of money is a new model of trust, and this legislation provides the regulatory certainty needed for that trust. 

The GENIUS Act is a landmark piece of legislation. It establishes a dual charter system, enabling both federal and state-regulated stablecoin issuers. The key provisions are precisely what the industry needed: a mandate for 1:1 reserves with high-quality liquid assets like cash and short-term treasuries, a prohibition on reusing those reserves, and the designation of issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This isn’t just about compliance; it’s about building a foundation of trust that can be exported globally.

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The Wero Wallet: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

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I’m a reluctant payment historian. Over my 30 yrs I’ve seen many payment projects come and go. The latest is the European Payment Initiative’s (EPI) new wallet, Wero. Billed as Europe’s homegrown answer to Visa and Mastercard, it carries the significant political weight of figures like ECB President Christine Lagarde, who frames it as a “march to independence”. While the political ambition is clear, I believe the business case is fundamentally flawed.

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APIs – More Banks to Follow JPM – Pricing Implications

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As I stated in my Monday blog, Open Banking is dead in the US. Pay by Bank (and open banking) is effectively dead in the US. This follows JPMorgan’s move to push out its new API pricing structure to data aggregators and other third parties in the first week of July. This development comes as the “new” CFPB seeks to vacate its Section 1033 rule.

The latest is that we can expect most other major banks to roll out their own pricing within the next two weeks. These banks will have different pricing, as there was no coordination among banks. JPM has always been the most forward in protecting consumer data. A new pricing floor for data access has been established. Now that other analysts have weighed in, I can recap the pricing framework. 

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Open Baning is Dead in the US

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Last week, I shared the news that JPMorgan has started charging for API access, a move that many see as a death blow to pay-by-bank and open banking in the US. While this might sound dramatic, I believe it’s a necessary reset. The truth is, the current model was never sustainable, and with the CFPB’s recent move to vacate its unlawful 1033 rule, the writing is on the wall. Open banking as we know it is dead in the US.

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Stablecoin Plays and Players – Issuers, Infrastructure, and Innovators

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Today’s blog is focused on private companies, business models, and competitive dynamics shaping the stablecoin “industry”. Note Google Gemini was used in discerning company performance and focus.

No we are not going to drill into every company in Block’s DeFi market overview, Stablecoin Liquidity, or the 172 companies in CB Insights Stabllecoin industry map…  but rather some highlights and how the market is likely to evolve in near term. Even though I”m focusing on just a few of the companies below, this is still a rather long 25 pages.

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Retail Banking and Stablecoins

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Friction, Float, and the Future

As a Banker, Founder and Payment Historian who has spent too long watching icebergs melt, I’ve seen many technologies promise to upend the banking industry. Most have been evolutionary, not revolutionary. But the advent of digital dollars, particularly consumer-facing stablecoins, are unique. Payments are the core of retail banking and profitability. Payments are a networked business, not just in card but in every consortium and association. As I outlined in The Power of Bank Networks, these networks are the engines that drive economies and how banks connect to the environment. For my colleagues in banking and payments, understanding how (or if) stablecoins impact payments is very important.

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Stablecoin Winners and Losers

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Summary

Winners:

  • Card Networks (Mostly Insulated): Their core business as ubiquitous real-time messaging networks for authorization and value-added services is largely unaffected. They are the top on=ramp (Visa Direct) and the top off-ramp (linked card). Networks will expand services to support issuer demand for stablecoin settlement and services. Within OECD 20 markets, there is no merchant demand for stablecoin in eCommerce.  
  • Emerging Markets: Stablecoins provide crucial financial access, inflation hedging, and efficient remittances where traditional banking is broken or local currencies are unstable, especially in Africa.  
  • Edge and Non-Card UCs. Low value payments, remittances, … 
  • Corporate Treasury and Treasury Platforms: Fortune 100 enterprises gain significant efficiencies in cash management through real-time liquidity, reduced costs, and enhanced transparency.  
  • Dollarization – US Treasury: The growth of USD-pegged stablecoins, driven by regulations like the Genius Act, creates substantial demand for US Treasuries, reinforcing dollar dominance. Tether is already a top buyer.  
  • Existing Banks: Despite some fee pressure, banks are adapting by integrating stablecoins into their services, leveraging their customer relationships and regulatory expertise to remain central players.  
  • Fintech Enablers (Stripe, Shopify): These platforms expand their global reach by making stablecoin acceptance and payouts easier for merchants, particularly in cross-border commerce.  
  • KYC/AML Service Providers: Increased regulatory clarity and stablecoin adoption drive demand for robust identity verification and anti-money laundering services.
  • Wallets/Consumer Champion? PayPal? Enabling wallets in non-carded markets and a new model in eCom and POS (this is Stripe Privy).
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