EWS is certainly the right consortium to Issue a SC given KYC and their existing RT Zelle settlement rails (which also integrate to TCH RTP). The CX interface for particiapting zelle banks is also there, setting up a “transfer” like issuance process. Within Online Banking the big change will be showing stablecoin balances in a new account or something.
Last week I spoke about revolution and that this feels different. I drilled into the data, and wanted to share my learnings with updates based upon surveys, studies and news.
Summary… rough road ahead.. more hype than reality, and the 5 key hurdles for agentic commerce
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Hello from Alberta and the Columbia Ice Fields. During the drive I’ve put together a Case study in how Shopify is Building a key piece of the new model. Also drill down on monetization as the Gordian Knot that will determine how Agentic Commerce Operates.
I’ve been in the payments and retail space for almost three decades. I was there for the dot-com boom and bust, the shift from plastic to mobile wallets, the birth of amazon and Google, and the rise of the platform economy. I’ve seen enough hype cycles to fill a library. Each time, we were promised a revolution that would change everything. And while some of those shifts were significant, they were ultimately evolutionary. eCommerce added a channel, mobile created more shopping interactions and more points to influence, but were mostly the same commercially.
This time, I have to admit, it feels different. The rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence aren’t just creating a new channel; they are actively dismantling the foundational economic bargain of the internet. The core paradigms I’ve operated on for my entire career is being invalidated in real-time.
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I’ve never been a fan of “Pay by Bank.” It’s a solution in search of a problem, especially when compared to the efficiency of debit cards and the global reach of Visa Direct. Now, two major developments have dealt a significant blow to the already weak business case for this payment method.
In a significant ruling on yesterday (Aug 7)) U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Traynor struck down “swipe fees” cap that non-exempt banks can charge merchants for debit card transactions. The decision found that the Federal Reserve had exceeded its authority by allowing these fees to be higher than intended by law (ie include provisions for “fraud”).
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Can retailers resist AI Platforms? I don’t think so..
Agentic Commerce is in a state of flux. While the AI platforms provide a glimpse of what conversational commerce will look like, most aren’t able to complete a transaction.
Shopify and OpenAi are leading the way in creating a best in class integration that will change all that (see overview). For the millions of merchants on Shopify’s platform, participating in the conversational AI revolution will become as simple as flicking a switch. Shopify is handling the backend (real-time product data/inventory, payment and checkout). I love Shopify; their execution is consistently flawless, and I have no doubt this will be another seamless, successful product launch.
I’ve been in the eCommerce game for a while, last month I outlined why I thought edge use cases where the biggest opportunity for Agentic Commerce. The idea was simple. While the big retailers focus on building great CX with their own data, the real, unsolved problems in commerce exist in the long tail ( the small retailers without massive marketing departments). Think about finding an in-stock item for pickup today, or a slightly used version right in your community. That’s where I saw the gold.
Rumors are that a substantial organizational change at PayPal is in progress. Frankly, it’s overdue. For any global payments company to succeed, its leaders must possess a deep, almost intuitive, understanding of the global payments ecosystem. This is where PayPal is currently failing.
We have a CEO, Alex Chriss, known as a product specialist. While he may be excellent at getting products out the door, this is not the problem PayPal faces. Unfortunately, the team can’t see the forest fire given their conspicuously poor payment background. For example, look at Diego Scotti as EVP and GM of the consumer group. His experience comes from Verizon, and his chief credential is that he is the husband of Janey Whiteside, one of Alex’s closest payment advisors. When growth doesn’t happen and targets get missed, investors begin to look for the reasons and the resumes of those running the ship.
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Drivers, Current Efforts and My View of the Big Picture Opportunity. Do Stablecoins represent the greatest network expansion opportunity of the next decade? I think so…
Everyone knows I’m a big fan of Visa and Mastercard. Why not? They are the most successful commercial networks in the history of man. The power of banking is unlocked within the networks that connect them (see Power of Bank Networks) and V/MA are the largest “connectors” in the world (banks, consumers, businesses). While many pundits see stablecoin as a threat to cards, I don’t see it that way at all. In fact, I think Stablecoin-based innovation will help drive a new phase of growth in the networks (as well as dollarization).
Today’s blog provides background on the current network efforts in stablecoin settlement. I’m also attempting to outline the “why” and business case for card networks expanding their role, the number of nodes on the network, and the political dynamics at work behind the scenes. Why read this? In my view this subject is the core of a bull case for network expansion. IMHO Investors should not look at stablecoins as a threat to V/MA, but rather as another network where V/MA can deliver value and grow the network at a massive scale.. A once-in-a-generation opportunity.
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Yesterday President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law, clearing the path for dollar-backed stablecoins. As I’ve argued before, the future of money is a new model of trust, and this legislation provides the regulatory certainty needed for that trust.
The GENIUS Act is a landmark piece of legislation. It establishes a dual charter system, enabling both federal and state-regulated stablecoin issuers. The key provisions are precisely what the industry needed: a mandate for 1:1 reserves with high-quality liquid assets like cash and short-term treasuries, a prohibition on reusing those reserves, and the designation of issuers as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act. This isn’t just about compliance; it’s about building a foundation of trust that can be exported globally.
